Re: The G-N Distribution Model

anthony wagner

Don't forget B&O's thousands of box cars. Tony Wagner

On Tuesday, September 5, 2017 2:23 PM, "'Aley, Jeff A' Jeff.A.Aley@... [STMFC]" wrote:

I’ll save you the trouble of looking up the yogurt:
I have countered numerous times that 1) one train does not make a sample and 2) the distribution hypothesis has nothing whatsoever to say about the composition of a single train. I will fall back, once again, on my Yoplait Yogurt in the shopping car example: I do not purchase Yoplait at regular prices (tho my daughter may slip in one or two when I'm not looking); However when they are half off I [buy] a whole lot of them. The composition of my carts therefore varies considerably when examined individually but the average number of yoplaits I buy over numerous trips is probably pretty constant over time if enough trips are recorded and analyzed.
I presume that in the 6 years since Dave posted the above, he has consumed a large quantity of yogurt.
From: STMFC@... [mailto:STMFC@...]
Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2017 10:03 AM
To: STMFC@...
Subject: RE: [STMFC] The G-N Distribution Model
One of the problems people seem to have in accepting the theory is in the
failure to understand that average does not mean instance. I recommend a
search in the archives for the word yogurt (possibly Yoplait yoghurt),
There should be two hits, one from me and a reply from Tony. Please find
and read.

Basically a single train will never conform to the average. It takes 20-30
real freight trains to conform to the average. How many times do you move
1200-2000 cars across your model railroad? So let's get rea herel: FIRST,
not everybody on the list is a model railroader moving 12-18 car trains.
Some of us are historians. Me for instance. The theory is about real
railroads, not model railroads. SECOND, A few of us use simulators where
60-80 car consists moving across a 100 mile district are the norm. Me for
instance. Which is to say I can apply the theory quite directly because my
choice of expressing historical railroading has no compression in its
representation whereas physical model railroaders are faced with huge
compression requirements and so cannot do a dozen whole 60-80 car consists.

What physical model railroaders can do is make reference to the theory when
making purchases so they're not too overloaded with the arcane AND give some
consideration in the planning stages of how one might cycle cars on and off
their layout so as to achieve greater variability in the arcane because they
do show up.

Dave Nelson

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