Re: Data for Wine Commodity Flows


Charles Hostetler
 

Tim O'Connor wrote:

Wonderful stuff - one major oddity however. You wrote

"In 1957 there were about 62.7 million carloads reported by the Class 1
carriers in the FCS."

Carloadings in the 1950's were approximately "30 million loads per year"
and were steadily trending downwards. (Higher at the beginning of the decade
than at the end.) What is the FCS and why the huge variance with car load
statistics of the AAR? Or is it a multi-year statistic?


Hi Tim,

I'm glad you enjoyed the posts.  I've had a good time researching and writing them.  Wine turns out to be a much more interesting and modelogenic commodity flow than I had presupposed - thanks are also due to Tony Thompson for raising this point in his presentation in October.  

The answer to your question is that the 1% Carload Waybill Survey and the Freight Commodity Statistics were counting different things.  

In the 1% Survey, each Class 1 Steam Railroad had to report on selected waybills, each of which represented a single carload shipment, with a theoretical probability of 1 in 100 of being chosen.  So out of 100 shipments that were routed ATSF - NKP - NYC that originated in California and terminated in New York, on the average one would expect 1 entry in the 1% Carload Waybill Survey that would be placed in the category "From California To New York".  

In the FCS, each Class 1 Steam Railroad had to report all of its shipments, divided up into four categories (traffic originated online and terminated online; traffic originated online and terminated offline; traffic originated offline and terminated online; and traffic originated offline and terminated offline {which we call through traffic}).  So out of 100 shipments routed ATSF - NKP - NYC, ATSF would report 100 carloads that originated online and were delivered to other carriers; NKP would report 100 carloads that originated offline and were delivered to other carriers; and NYC would report 100 carloads that originated offline and terminated online.  This would total 300 carloads that would have been reported in the FCS.  

The number of Class 1 carriers that were involved with a particular shipment (which I call the route complexity) determined the number of times that shipment was reported in the FCS.  Since the FCS statistics for total carload of wine handled were much greater than the number of shipments, the number of interchanges per shipment must have been larger.  In fact, we can get a quantitative handle on the average number of interchanges per shipment from the FCS, a topic that I will take up in Part 3 of this group of posts.  

Thanks!

Charles Hostetler
Washington Ill.


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