Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies. Was: Re: Re:Fwd: Re: Freight car distribution

Mike Brock <brockm@...>

Dave Nelson writes:

"As for Mike's later comment that perhaps a years time is necessary to get
sightings that conform to the hypothesis, I disagree. It appears around
800-1000 cars will come fairly close."

First, note that my data is about 1/35 of the train consists for only about a month and a half. What I was trying to say is that during this period of time, the number of appearances by SP box cars is about 2.6 times what the theory predicts. I think you and/or Tim suggested that my data may contain a few unusual trains and that, over a longer period of time, say a year, the total number of SP box cars would fit better with the theory's prediction. I don't, of course, know that to be true and I don't really care because I'm not interested in train operations over that long a time. What we do know is that those three UP frt trains with way over the predicted number of SP box cars did occur and being a prototype modeler, I want the opportunity to model them...without having to have 1000 box cars in the car base. For all we know, during the next month and a half even more SP box cars appeared in Wyoming.

Theories are fine but I prefer them to be empirically developed to match real data. Hence, I am convinced, barring data to the contrary, that "closely associated" RRs will be represented by a higher % than their national %...say somewhere between 1.5 to 2 times. Why? I don't really care.

Mike Brock

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