Re: Freight car distribution

Mike Brock <brockm@...>

Tim O'Conner says:

"Mike Brock wrote

My point exactly. The theory doesn't seem to apply to the
Overland Route for SP, CB&Q, C&NW, and Milw...
Actually, it applies exactly to the Overland Route. Your
samples are just too few to be statistically meaningful."

My point I've said from the first. But it IS the data we have. We just don't have enough data to make any definite judgements. The Nelson/Gilbert theory is interesting and I've said also...but IMO I wouldn't use it to predict or project accurate frt car populations as it exists today. Meaning that, IMO, it needs a bit of adjustment for closely associated the Overland Route among others.

"It's not even one day's worth of trains on the UP."

In 1949 it is slightly more than one day's trains.

data do not support ANYONE's theory. In the absence of
data, logic must prevail."

Now I know you're kidding <G>.

"Give me a logical explanation
for your consists, please! All you've said basically is
that Tim was wrong, based on a minute sliver of data. If
you have a better theory, I'm all ears."

That's simple. 1. Fraley loved SP box cars. He liked to run on trains filled with them when possible. He even rode in them sometimes. 2.WP, ATSF, GN, and NP CEO's hated the CEO of SP [ he always beat them at their poker games in Vegas...among other things ] so they wouldn't take his box cars. The UP CEO was never sober enough to gamble. 3. There was a photographer in Omaha...General Malcom B. Malcolm [ also know for having one of 25 gold Big Boys made in Burma in '43 [ the other 24 were sunk in the Yamato Maru incident ]. Malcolm loved to shoot SP box cars so he bribed the SP CEO's secretary to make sure SP box cars went through Omaha.

Tim wasn't wrong. The theory simply fails for the data that we have for the Overland Route. As you'll note in one of his messages to me...that I reprinted...he noticed that as well as I did. A lot of theories break down and have to be adjusted when they fail the test of data. In this case we have no way of knowing if the theory is failing because of the data or the lack of data.

Mike Brock

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