Re: New HO scale 70-ton flatcar

Gatwood, Elden J SAD

Richard is absolutely correct, and you should go get stuff you have been
looking at at today's prices now, as everything you get made or assembled in
China is going to continue to rise rapidly. This $30 flat car may seem a
bargain in a year. The issuance of billions of $ in credit lines is likely to
hit those manufactured goods very hard, as the dollar abroad tanks further.

The Chinese have been paying attention very closely to American TV and
internet and they know very well what our standard of living is compared to
theirs. They want to be a First World country also, so wage demands will
continue to rise.

There will also be a noticeable time lag between the realization that Chinese
exports in the U.S. will have priced up to the point that sales are dropping,
and the ability to move manufacturing capability (for these products) abroad
to cheaper sources of labor that can be trained to make high quality goods of
this type. The Chinese are very good at this.

I have a whole raft of economists, both within and without the Fed, I get to
talk to every day, so this is not vapor. Next stops? India, Indonesia,
Singapore, Pakistan....Mexico? Aren't you guys anxious to own an RTR steam
engine made there? QA/QC, anyone?

Go buy the beautiful, ready-to-run steam-era freight cars you need soon,
folks. And for the future (and better yet), convince more of our U.S. model
manufacturers to duplicate the Kadee business/manufacturing model, so we can
buy more American-made and assembled products.

Elden Gatwood


From: STMFC@... [mailto:STMFC@...] On Behalf Of
Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 11:13 PM
To: STMFC@...
Subject: [STMFC] Re: New HO scale 70-ton flatcar

--- In STMFC@... <> , Richard
Hendrickson <rhendrickson@...>

C'mon, guys, get real about prices. I have it on good authority from
a manufacturer who prefers not to be quoted that the cost of
everything in China - molding, assembly, packaging - is going up
rapidly, and gets higher every week. It won't be long before
assembled HO scale freight car models will be selling in the $40-$50
Could there be an upside to this? Such as a possible resurgence of
kits vs. rtr, if assembly starts to cost too much over there?

Walt Lankenau

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