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Like Viv, I'm out of my league in all this. My only real acquaintance
with statistics is of the Mark Twain variety (i.e. lies). From what
I read, my view is that if I don't have and can't get the exact data
on the cars actually traveling on my chosen piece of prototype, the
G-N hypothesis gives me some level of practical guidance.
The opposite way to go might be to walk into a hobby shop and just
buy everything that seems reasonable and appealing. Thank all you
folks that care enough to think this stuff through and try to get it
all right. Even if you don't get it all perfected, it has to be
better than my random choices.
--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "Viv Brice" <viv.brice@...> wrote:
I'm getting confused - I have no experience in this area and can only
comment on what I read, with great interest I might add, on this incredibly
knowledgeable list. I might also be totally out in left field!
However, to me, we often seem to be talking about traffic and freight cars
in the same breath implying that traffic originating on road X always uses
road X freight cars. Surely traffic was loaded into whatever MTY freight
cars were available, which may or may not be home road, may or may not be
cars being headed 'home' or even may be any car which just happens to be in
the yard and fits the requirement.
As I read it, the G-N 'method/concept/whatever we call it' is not concerned
with traffic, but only with freight cars. Thus Mike's large number of SP
freight cars would probably not represent all of the SP originated traffic,
which would also be being carried in other cars headed east, say PRR, NYC,
etc. Indeed, there is no reason to assume that all of the SP cars contain SP
originated freight (although this may be stretching things a bit - I bow
here to other with more knowledge of the area's traffic flow than I have).
My point is that, from what I've read on this list, traffic and the cars
included in G-N are not necessarily synonymous and we need to be very
careful about assuming that something that affects traffic automatically has
the same effect on freight car distribution.
Regards, Viv Brice
An SPF from 'Down Under'