#### Re: Box/auto distribution 1938

Tim O'Connor

Larry, does 2,267 box cars on the UP mainline even represent the
traffic of a single typical day? So here we are looking at freight
trains spread over four months... or on any given day, less than
1% of the box cars on the main line are sampled.

What can be learned from this? Nothing, I believe.

Look at it another way -- suppose you had conductors books for the
same time period from three other conductors. Do you think that the
tallies would be the same? I don't -- not one chance in a thousand.
So then, which would be the representative sample? Answer: neither.

If you had ALL of the conductors books for every day for a full
week, now that would be interesting! That would smooth out a lot
of the daily fluctuations. Of course there's seasonal variations,
but that might actually be easy to discern in a large sample.

Tim O'Connor

Here is some info on the distribution of box and auto cars for trains on the U.P. mainline between Laramie and Rawlins in 1938. The data are compiled from three Freight Conductors' Train Books written by conductors Ferguson, Fraley, and Fitz. Ferguson's data are from May and June of 1938, while Fraley's and Fitz's are from September-October of the same year.

In the tables below the information from the train books is compared to national averages based on the January, 1938 ORER. The national values count only box, auto and ventilated cars in interchange service on Class I U.S. roads or their lessees.

The tables show the road initial, the number of box/auto cars in the conductors' books, the percentage these cars represent, and the national percentage. Only roads with 5 or more cars reported in the train books are listed.

Roads in which the percentage of cars tallied from the conductors' books exceeds the national percentage.
Road: Num; Book %; Nat %
SP: 201; 15.1%; 3.3%
CB&Q: 125; 9.4%; 3.0%
NYC: 99; 7.4%; 6.1%
MILW: 83; 6.2%; 4.7%
CNW: 64; 4.8%; 3.2%
WP: 54; 4.1%; 0.4%
GTW: 53; 4.0%; 1.3%
RI: 44; 3.3%; 3.1%
MP: 33; 2.5%; 2.3%
IC: 32; 2.4%; 2.3%
SLSF: 31; 2.3%; 2.0%
PM: 26; 2.0%; 1.5%
DT&I: 21; 1.6%; 0.3%
NKP: 15; 1.1%; 1.0%
T&P: 15; 1.1%; 0.5%
T&NO: 14; 1.1%; 1.0%
CGW: 8; 0.6%; 0.5%
CMO: 7; 0.5%; 0.5%
B&LE: 5; 0.4%; 0.0%

Roads in which the percentage of cars tallied from the conductors' books is less than the national percentage.
Road: Num; Book %; Nat %
PRR: 79; 5.9%; 10.4%
ATSF: 36; 2.7%; 4.9%
MC: 27; 2.0%; 2.5%
B&O: 24; 1.8%; 4.4%
NP: 24; 1.8%; 3.1%
SOUTHERN: 19; 1.4%; 3.6%
WABASH: 18; 1.4%; 1.6%
GN: 15; 1.1%; 3.5%
SOO: 15; 1.1%; 1.4%
ERIE: 13; 1.0%; 1.4%
L&N: 11; 0.8%; 2.2%
C&O: 9; 0.7%; 1.4%
CCC&STL: 7; 0.5%; 1.5%
N&W: 7; 0.5%; 1.0%
D&RGW: 6; 0.5%; 0.6%
M-K-T: 6; 0.5%; 0.6%
DL&W: 5; 0.4%; 1.3%

FWIW the percentage of box/auto cars that were UP is 41% - 935 cars of a total of 2,267. (1,332 cars were used to calculate the Book % in the tables.)

Best wishes,
Larry Ostresh
Laramie, Wyoming

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