Re: Box/auto distribution 1938


Tim O'Connor
 

I'm sure I don't need to point out 1949 was a very different year
than 1938, in which the US economy was still deep in recession.
Yes, of course. I would expect therefore that there would have been fewer trains per day in 1938 than in 1949, which would raise my percentages. If you have data showing that the Great Depression led to more trains across Wyoming, I would like to see it. Or if you have better data than Mark provided, please make that public.

It has nothing to do with the number of trains Larry. Tim Gilbert
pointed out that the percentage of home road cars staying on-line
greatly increased throughout the depression years, and so the
distribution of cars nationwide was quite different in 1949 than
in 1938. The more-or-less uniform distribution of plain box cars
is far more apparent in the late 1940's than in the late 1930's.
The year 1938 was a severe recession. Industrial output declined
sharply. I assume that means there were a lot fewer PRR and other
eastern cars on the SP and UP than would be in normal economic
times.

You say your data show "dominance" of SP cars -- but isn't it just
201 or so SP cars in 34 random trains over a period of a month? Now,
that might show "dominance" but it might just also be random luck.
If the UP ran 3 trains a day, I'd say that was a great sample. But
even if UP only ran 20 trains a day... Well, it's not much to go on.

Tim O'

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