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Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Gene Green wrote:
-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education - say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."
Yes, Gene, I agree that the person in the street thinks of the arithmetic mean as the "average," and that definition is fixed, which is why I expressed doubt about the concept of a "true average." For a unimodal symmetrical distribution, the mean, median and mode lie at the same place, so for many situations you can lump them all together as the "average." But the minute the distribution is skewed, and many real-world distributions are skewed, the three definitions give different answers, and the "middle" of the distribution no longer lies at the most frequent value (the mode).

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: Union Pacific Stock car class

dmueller183@...
 

You mean 46759? There is no 46795 in the 1940, 1950, or
1953 ORER's.

...and ditto for july 1959 dave





</HTML>


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Tim O'Connor
 

Brian

I was looking at a drawing but now I can't find it -- but
now I think I'd rather have those coil-leaf-coil trucks as
found on the DT&I 14000-14299 box cars.

This spring package was applied to at least two different
sideframe castings. I'll send you the excellents scans I
have of each sideframe with these interesting springs. One
of the castings (which does not match the DT&I cars) has
an ASF foundry mark.

Tim O'Connor

Another truck high on my list wish is a 50 ton roller
bearing truck... Let's see...

50t rolling bearing (Buckeye/National/ASF/Barber/Scullin)
50t Barber S-2 w/ spring plank
50t National C-1
50t Gould
Tim,

Gould made a lot of trucks. Which one did you have in mind?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


DYLX Cover Hopper Photo

Kurt Laughlin <fleeta@...>
 

Does anyone know of a photo of the DYLX covered hoppers (Dri-Flo types, I believe) BESIDES the one in the Classic Freight Cars book? I'm looking for an image prior to the formation of Sinclair-Koppers in 1964.

Thanks,
KL


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Tim O'Connor
 

-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I
hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or
mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education -
say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."
Gene Green

Larry posted his comparison spreadsheet showing a straight line
fleet-percentage vs observed-percentage for each railroad. I then
said that one really needs to compute a standard deviation (using
multiple data sets as Larry added) to know how closely observations
match the Tim's theory of random distribution.

A simple way is to consider a sample of 50 box cars. For a railroad
that owns 2% of the U.S. fleet, the "average" number of its box cars
in the sample would be 1. But for a SINGLE sample, what's the chance
that NONE of its cars are present? Easy .98**50 ~= .36. That is, 36%
chance. For a railroad with 10% of the U.S. fleet, .90**50 ~= .005.
That is, there's only a 1 in 200 probability that NONE of those cars
are in the sample.

If you have a layout that has 100 box cars, you probably should own
300 to 400 box cars proportionately distributed among railroads except
for the home road, which should be over-represented. (You need so many
cars because this gives you a "precision" of 0.25% so you can have
examples from very small as well as large railroads.)

Then allow random assignments to take their course -- over time you'll
see different trains but the 'average' train (after hundreds of samples)
will match the national fleet percentages (after discounting for the
home road cars).

Of course, you can then add to this random mix, local facts that skew
the mix. Perhaps you have an auto parts or assembly plant. Or maybe a
grain elevator that receives only corn, or only wheat. Or it may be a
certain time of year -- e.g. grain rush. Etc etc. Then you can 'skew'
some car assignments to reflect those traffic patterns.

Tim O'Connor


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Brian Leppert <b.leppert@...>
 

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, Tim O'Connor <timboconnor@...> wrote:

Andy

Another truck high on my list wish is a 50 ton roller
bearing truck... Let's see...

50t rolling bearing (Buckeye/National/ASF/Barber/Scullin)
50t Barber S-2 w/ spring plank
50t National C-1
50t Gould
Tim,

Gould made a lot of trucks. Which one did you have in mind?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Brian Leppert <b.leppert@...>
 

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "gn3397" <heninger@...> wrote:

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "al_brown03" <abrown@> wrote:

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "gn3397" <heninger@> wrote:
<snip>

I would like to see a Dalman-Andrews. Unfortunately, only GN,
Soo
Line, and ACL
modelers could use it, to my knowledge. Oh well, I can hope.
To your Dalman-Andrews list, I'd add several series of SAL cars.
That
ACL had them too, I didn't know.

Al Brown, Melbourne, Fla.
Mr. Brown,

Now that you mention it, I am in error. I meant SAL. Thanks for
correcting my error. I need
them for my GN cars, which I am most familiar with.

Sincerely,
Robert D. Heninger
Iowa City, IA
Spokane, Portland & Seattle can be added to the list. These were ex-
GN gons aquired in the '50s and converted to wood chip cars.

I am aware of SAL B-5 boxcars with these trucks, but what were other
SAL classes?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


Re: Battleship Gons trucks

Charles Hladik
 

Al,
A couple of folks I know that have built these have used the old Cape
Line Pilchner Patent truck. These are now available from Bethlehem Car Works, I
believe.


Chuck Hladik
Rutland Railroad
Virginia Division
NMRA L5756



**************Looking for a car that's sporty, fun and fits in your budget?
Read reviews on AOL Autos.
(http://autos.aol.com/cars-Volkswagen-Jetta-2009/expert-review?ncid=aolaut00030000000007 )


Re: Box car counts by RR - NMRA Charles collection

Larry Kline
 

Tim O'Connor wrote:
Larry, I suspect Tim would have recommended computing the standard deviation of this data set, in order to see how closely these observed differences from the mean values match the expected standard deviation. One does not "expect" all values in a sample data set from a large population to match the mean values, but one does expect that the mean of the deviations is predictable. If it is, then you can make a case that your data set is a good representation of a hypothetical sample. If not, then the data set may be skewed, or your expected sample may be incorrect (i.e. Tim's theory of distribution may be incorrect).

I believe that the random variables in this situation are the boxcar counts for each railroad. The actual boxcar counts for US railroads are not random variables. A single set of data, like the numbers I posted for the Charles collection, has only one value for each random variable so a standard deviation cannot be computed.

On the other hand, if all of the trains in all of the conductor's books owned by list members were treated as separate observations, then standard deviations could be computed for the number of boxcars observed for each railroad. The data in the conductors books could also be aggregated for each railroad.

Larry Kline
Pittsburgh, PA


Re: Box car counts by RR - NMRA Charles collection

Larry Kline
 

Dave Nelson wrote:
Larry, there are a couple of errors in that listing and I think you should correct them. First, as the images were taken on the PRR you should not count any PRR cars in the sample. Home Road cars are not what the basic Distribution Hypothesis is about. Second, I get a lower total even after that so I think you might have missed something when you tabulated the numbers.

I sent my Excel spreadsheet to Dave and we agree on the numbers,

I made a folder in the files section called _Boxcar counts-Charles collection_ and moved the two files I previously posted to the folder. I added a third file with the PRR boxcars omitted.

Larry Kline
Pittsburgh, PA


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Gene Green <bierglaeser@...>
 

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, Anthony Thompson <thompson@...> wrote:

An average always means the same thing, Malcolm, though in a
skewed distribution it will not lie at the same location as the most
frequent data, which lay persons usually assume the average to be
(and > which it is in a symmetrical distribution). But I have no idea
what a > "true average" is.

-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I
hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or
mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education -
say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."

Gene Green
OitwTtoEP


Re: diversions.

Bill McCoy
 

Diversions could be filed by the beneficial owner of the car's lading
as shown on the Bill of Lading and reflected on the Waybill that
accompanied the car. Up to 3 diversions could be made on a car IIRC.
To protect the through rates from origin to ultimate destination the
routing specified in the rate tariff that may refer to a routing
guide (tariff) had to be protected. If the SAL received a carload of
west coast lumber from the SLSF at Birmingham consigned to a customer
in Petersburg, VA and the shipper of consignee wanted to divert
(reconsign) the car to a customer on the SAL in Savannah they would
have to file the diversion before the car departed Hamlet, NC. (Look
at an SAL map and you will see why). Protecting the through rate was
very important as the local rate from a SAL point beyond Hamlet would
add significantly to the transportation cost. If the customer in
Savannah was located on the Southern Ry, closed to reciprocal
switching requiring the Southern to have a line haul, the car would
have to be diverted on the SLSF before delivery to the SAL at
Birmingham. This is because the Southern had no routes that would
allow the SAL to be intermediate between the SAL and Southern on
traffic moving via the Birmingham gateway to Southern RY destinations.

Diversions were a serious business and one of my first duties every
morning was to check to see that Hamlet had made my diversions from
the day before. If we missed the diversion we had to protect the
through rate even if the car was then out of route. Lumber and west
coast produce were the major commodities diverted and Charlotte had a
flock of brokers. Later to avoid the pain of switching out cars
already classified to a different destination the diversion rules on
CSX were changed to require that the diversion be filed before the
car arrived at the last diversion point.

Bill McCoy
Jax, FL

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
wrote:

I'd like to try to clarify the diversion thing a bit based on what
I believe to have been the rules. The excerpt from Don Holbrook
below is a nice summary of what happened. BTW, all that I've read so
far from Don is consistent with my experience.

There were limits to circuity in diverting cars. The cars had to
be diverted/reconsigned in a manner such that their path from origin
to destination was a legal route, as shown in the routing guide.
There was a single routing guide that was itself a tariff and one of
several supplementary tariffs referenced by most commodity and class
rate tariffs. {note: other tariffs refereneced by most rate tariffs
were the Open and Prepay Station List, ORER, demurrage tariff and
Uniform Freight calssifications } The rouitng guide had all of the
valid routes. That included most combinations of railroads and
junctions that did not cause excess circuity. Circuity was expressed
as a percentage of short line miles [There was another supplementary
tariff that had short line miles between all points.]. I don't
remeber the actual factor, but let's use 120 for example.

Here is an example. From Roseburg, OR (lumber loading area) to
Provincetowm MA, the short line mileage is 3653, routed SP-Ogden-UP-
Omaha-CNW-Chicago-NYC-Framingham-NH. USing the 120 percent rule, we
can go 4384 miles. Here's a route we could use to delay one of those
lumber rollers. SP-Portland-UP-Denver-MP-MEMphis-SOU-Washington-PRR-
New York-NH. That route is 4375 miles. At any point between
Roseburg and Little Rock the car could be diveted to a direct route
via Chicago or St. Louis and NYC to Framingham.

=========================
> Don said
Diversions were specified by the broker. However, a car could be
diverted once without cost to the broker providing the car was
going
in a straight line movement between two end points. Example would
be
diversion lumber moving from Pacific Northwest via MSTL to Peoria
and
Peoria being the broker specified destination. It the car reached
Albert Lea, MN and was diverted to Indianpolis, IN for the final
customer the diversion was free. However, if the diversion was from
Albert Lea, MN to Sioux Falls, SD then, depending on era, was
either
treated as a diversion with a specific charge, or as an entirely
new
shipment because of the diversion being back in a westward
movement.
Brokers made every attempt to sell their product enroute and in a
linear fashion.


Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


Re: Car distribution vs era

Douglas Harding <dharding@...>
 

"Tom's 1938 Register" was based upon the American Guide Series published during the depression, by the Federal Writers Project of
the Works Progress Administration. The State of Iowa guide is a series of driving tours one can take to see the state. Each town
on the tour is listed, along with pertinent info, business, industry, tourist highlights, etc.

Tom read through each guide (not every state had a guide published) and listed the business and industries, he did his best to
determine which railroad might have served. In general a very helpful addition to one's collection, but not a 100% complete, nor
accurate. I know for the Iowa listings I have spotted several errors for railroads. He did publish an errata sheet, which could be
downloaded from his website.

Doug Harding
www.iowacentralrr.org


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Malcolm Laughlin wrote:
I'm OK with the average as the core datum, but recognizing that the average in the car distribution case may be at one side of a skewed distribution orm otherwise not a true average. Any average is better than zero or infinity as the starting point.
An average always means the same thing, Malcolm, though in a skewed distribution it will not lie at the same location as the most frequent data, which lay persons usually assume the average to be (and which it is in a symmetrical distribution). But I have no idea what a "true average" is.

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies. Was: Re: Re

Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
 

Tony said
> That doesn't eliminate the importance of the average as the core datum. Moreover, my instinct is that what "looks right" is probably the average, not the extremes of the data. Without more specific data, and we have precious little, I believe that trying to look typical is an excellent beginning
=========================

I'm OK with the average as the core datum, but recognizing that the average in the car distribution case may be at one side of a skewed distribution orm otherwise not a true average. Any average is better than zero or infinity as the starting point.


Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478


Re: ADMIN: Digest

Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
 

Well Mike, knowing that I'm one of the former jailees that you've mentioned, maybe a grace period of one digest would be in order. This list has unreasonable volume to get individual messages.

Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies. Was: Re: Re:Fwd

Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
 

Mike Brock said
> “First, note that my data is about 1/35 of the train consists for only about
a month and a half. What I was trying to say is that during this period of
time, the number of appearances by SP box cars is about 2.6 times what the
theory predicts.”
------------------------

No reason to think this is an anomaly. More likely it represents the proximity of the railroads – see my earlier post about cars form other railroads in proportion to their distance from my railroad. I'm sure the proportionality theory is wrong. More on that tomorrow.

Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


Re: Freight car distribution - Four part waybills an randomization

Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
 

There have been a few comments on this topic in regard to waybills and how do we get randomness so that there is the possibility, as Tim O mentioned for example, of having four SFRD reefers on the same switch run to Frederticksburg Cold Storage. At our club there are two techniques that use in making up four part waybills that help with this.

1. Our layout has enough complexity that it can take from twoto seven days to go through the foutr parts of the waybill. I try to combine trips in a manner that gives different cycle times.

2. I will make 1/4 to 1/3 excess waybills for a car category. When a car gets back to the fiddle yard on cycle four, the waybill is pulled and a diferent waybill is put in the car pocket. Here's an example using meat reefers.

We have about 30 meat cars with about ten different meat companies. The waybill on part 1 has the shipper (meat packer) highlighted and the car pocket clearly identifies the packer. For each packer, I've taken actual origin points from the OpSIG industry database. When a meat car returns to the fiddle yard on part four, we draw another waybill for that packer.

For produce, we have a set of waybills for PFE and SFRD reefers. Each has two round trips from actual origins on UP, SP or SFRD as appropriate. I will always combine a round trip for an move to a local industry, which can take two to four days, with an overhead move to get the cycle length (pseudo)randomness .

These techniques give us a nice variety of moves and what you will see at any given operating session is quite iunpredictable.




I'm copying this to the OpSIG, something we might want to discuss.


Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478


Re: Car distribution vs era

Walter M. Clark
 

--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, <tmolsen@...> wrote:

Dan and all,

I started on the Penn in the Philly area in '65, working in the
block stations that serviced local and major yards in addition to the
main lines. Most of the people I worked with all started on the road
back in the late 30s and 40s. Working with local and road crews
either making up trains or making pick ups and set offs and putting up
with irascible yardmasters, who thought that they were "GOD" and
always right, was just in a days work, but it was also an education.

Yardmasters always had ten trains to get out their garden before
they would take one in, not caring that you had one of main tracks
blocked up with trains waiting, some on short time.

The problem here is that for the most part we are trying to
replicate freight car movements from 50+ years ago with little
information to go on.

As a Pennsy modeler of the late 1953 period, I am lucky as we have
several guides to work with. We have system freight schedule books
which give the routings, yards where pickups and set outs are made and
the way the road freights were blocked. In addition to the freight
schedules in the Employee Timetables, there is the book called the
C.T.1000 which lists every branch, yard, main line and what industries
are located on them. This book also came in regional issues as well.
These were updated and issued about every 5 years. And in some
cases, we have found local freight schedule books showing routing and
schedules. Of course, you have to realize that the schedule timing is
tentative and was used as a guide to the train departures and
arrivals. Knowing what industries are in any given location, you can
then research the type of products that they made, shipped and received.

Since I model what was the Middle Division, I can run just about any
type of freight car that was in service in my time frame, even some of
those roads which Richard Hendrickson calls those "yall roads." This
is because the "Middle" was more of a conduit that tied the western
end of the system to the eastern end. When watching the videos, it is
like looking at the catalog of cars from Sunshine, Westerfield, F&C
and just about every other car manufacturer. Even with the through
freight operations, there was still enough local industries at various
towns on the route to keep a vigorous local freight operation going.

Again, the number of loads and empties on road trains varied in that
period along with the various commodities that either were shipped in
or shipped out of each of these small towns. For example, Lewistown
had five branches that emanated from the yard there, with industries
on all of them. Trains operations were pretty much the same as any on
another big road, whether it was the PRR, the NYC, Santa Fe or the UP.
Each had their own idiosyncrasies, but the operations were about the
same.

To replicate any type of balance or type of equipment on a daily or
even weekly basis is very difficult, even with the information that we
have. You are never going to get it right, as every day was different
and varied week to week, year to year, depending on the country's
business cycles. Yes, maybe the best way to guess at what would be
close would be to have snapshots of what the yards looked like over a
given time period. The Kline/Culotta book put out by the NMRA is
about as close to this as you can get, but again, you are still
guessing as it is only one maybe 6 month period in 1947.

I would think that at this point this discussion has run it's course
as it is about the tenth time this subject has come up. It is a
fascinating discourse, but for now I think that everyone should take a
deep breath, print out the information from the list archives, work
out what works for them, and go back to building freight cars. Good
Luck guys!

Regards to all,

Tom Olsen
7 Boundary Road, West Branch
Newark, Delaware, 19711-7479
(302) 738-4292
tmolsen@...

Group,
I may be over-simplifying things, but it seems to me that you first
have to decide what industries and other receivers/shippers you will
have on your layout, then research what you need to know regarding
who/from where/in what type car your receiving cars will be, along
with who/to where/in what type car your shipments will be. Then add
the bridge traffic and start buying and building car kits. The
information from the discussion and analysis gives us the background
we need for the distribution of box cars between owning roads, and the
receiving/shipping and bridge traffic information, along with the
discussion and analysis tells you what
flat/gondola/hopper/tank/reefer/specialty cars you need.

I'm working from a comb-bound book entitled "Ton's 1938 Register" I
got several years ago. Tom is Thomas A. Gloger, and he spent an
enormous amount of effort researching and cataloging companies that
were in operation in 1938, what their products were, along with the
railroad(s) serving the company operation(s). I'm using this to
determine my answers to the "need to know" from the above paragraph.

He lists a web site in his book, but it's no longer there.

The book just makes it easier, the process will still work without it.

Time stopped in November 1941
Walter M. Clark
Pullman, Washington, USA


Re: Freight car distribution - hopper rule

Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
 

Example: To protect their car supply, certain railroads subscribed to an interchange rule that mandated their empty cars could not be loaded on the return trip without their express consent. This was C&O, Virginian, N&W, and L&N, to a lesser extent C&EI, WM.
----------------------------

This refers to what were known (IIRC) as C411 cars. That was an AAR directive, not an interchange rule that railroads could subscribed to. It specified that hoppers of certain roads could not be loaded but must be returned empty to the owner - BTW an old rule in 1960. I know that it included N&W and C&O and I believe L&N. I believe a few other roads were added later. It di not include C&EI or B&O, although I think it might be that B&O was addeed later when it became controlled by C&O.

The criterion for inclusion in C411 was that the railroad owned an adequate number [by an arcane AAR formula] of cars to protect its own loadings. Few railroads qualified.


Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478

117781 - 117800 of 192836