Date   

A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies. Was: Re: Re

Steve Lucas <stevelucas3@...>
 

Tony--

After reading this thread for some time, I have to agree with your
basic premise. Most major through transcon routes such as the UP in
Wyoming would very likely have over a given period, percentages of
each road's boxcars in keeping with the national averages. The law
of averages supports this.

The danger lies in having a model car fleet that models many
exceptional cars, rather than a good overall representation of the
national fleet. But it's too easy for the modeller to, absent
knowledge of each road's freight car fleet and its relative
percentage to the national fleet, to model those exceptions. For
example, as much as I want a model of a B&O M-53, there are other B&O
cars that I have come to learn to be more common to that road. I
have to have many CN boxcars (fortunately, I do) to justify modelling
just ONE of the three aluminum-sided cars that they had. If you model
20 B&O boxcars, you can justify having one M53 in your fleet far
sooner than I can, where I will only need one B&O boxcar for my
layout.

Likewise there is some weighting that one has to be factored in by
the modeller to represent the location that they model. Your road
may move a lot of grain in boxcars, and the ratio of cars (home road
vs. national fleet) will change whether or not the grain is running.
Likewise, boxcar precentages from the ORER are not a good way to
determine the car population for a grain-hauling layout. Preferred
will be 40' steel or steel-frame boxcars with 6' doors. Far less
common will be cars with larger doors, as they were practically
useless for grain loading. And open coal hoppers, though not part of
this discussion, will have interesting distribution variations of
their own!

Steve Lucas.



When translated --- In STMFC@..., Anthony Thompson
<thompson@...> wrote:

Malcolm Laughlin wrote:
Let's not get too hung up on averages. After all, the average
day
rarely happenned. If 10 % of the cars were wagon tops, then
there
were probably days when out of ten cars five would be wagons . . .
Of course, but the average is a place to start. Otherwise
you
are just winging it. I don't understand the excitement of many
posters,
to point out that there are substantial swings from the average.
That
doesn't eliminate the importance of the average as the core datum.
Moreover, my instinct is that what "looks right" is probably the
average, not the extremes of the data. Without more specific data,
and
we have precious little, I believe that trying to look typical is
an
excellent beginning.

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@...
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Bruce Smith
 

On Fri, August 15, 2008 5:06 pm, Anthony Thompson wrote:
Bruce Smith wrote:
A large portion of the national fleet of tank cars was concentrated in
a series of linear routes between the gulf coast oil fields and the
north eastern refineries . . . So for us lucky PRR modelers, we get to
model a great percentage of the national fleet as it traversed Pennsy
rails, but someone modeling, say the ATSF, would see very few of those
cars. So in this particular case, both time and location are
absolutely critical!
So Bruce, what railroads do you think served those Gulf Coast
refineries? Could Santa Fe be among them? But of course to model the
tank trains, you'd have to model the right part of the Santa Fe at the
right time--just as a Pennsy modeler has to model the right part of the
PRR at the right time.
Absolutely, I should have been more specific... and indicated that the
statement applied to someone model, for example, Cajon Pass, or an obscure
ATSF branch near Alma ;^)

Interesting, in my continued reading last night of "The Petroleum
Administration at War" I found that the Kansas oil fileds were run at
excess production in late 1942 and early 1943 to provide additional crude
for the northeast's refineries, so another possible ATSF origin for crude?

Regards
Bruce


Re: Battleship Gons trucks

water.kresse@...
 

Folks,

In reseaching the C&O, N&W and Virginian high capacity gons, of the late-teens and early-twenties, one see a great number of experimental 6-wheel trucks being "tried" : ASF Lewis, ASF Equalizing Arm, ASF Lemont, Buckeye, etc. Do we have any of these covered in HO scale for the modeler to "kit bash" a body on. The C&O's 1941-1942 WW2 125-ton flat car trucks might be close enough for a potion of the early VGN 120-ton cars and their upgraded 105-ton Virginian cars.

Al Kresse


Re: Freight car distribution

laramielarry <ostresh@...>
 

Hi Folks

I ran my "random train" Excel program for 100,000 iterations to test
whether it was working OK. The average number of boxcars per train,
by railroad, seemed to properly mirror the national fleet as
represented by Tim Gilbert's data for 1949:

RR___Number___Nat'l %___Random %
ACL___13,831___1.99%___1.99%
AT&SF___35,234___5.08%___5.09%
B&M___2,755___0.40%___0.40%
B&O___28,683___4.13%___4.12%
C&EI___1,185___0.17%___0.17%
C&NW___23,284___3.36%___3.37%
C&O___21,699___3.13%___3.13%
CB&Q___31,634___4.56%___4.55%
CGA___5,153___0.74%___0.74%
CGW___3,622___0.52%___0.52%
CMO___3,422___0.49%___0.49%
CNJ___1,757___0.25%___0.26%
CNJ-CRP___1,247___0.18%___0.18%
CRI&P___17,160___2.47%___2.46%
D&H___2,469___0.36%___0.36%
DL&W___7,585___1.09%___1.09%
DM&IR___337___0.05%___0.05%
DRG&W___5,094___0.73%___0.74%
EJ&E___1,427___0.21%___0.21%
ERIE___12,070___1.74%___1.74%
GM&O___6,177___0.89%___0.89%
GN___22,399___3.23%___3.24%
GTW___8,556___1.23%___1.22%
IC___21,248___3.06%___3.08%
KCS___2,923___0.42%___0.42%
L&N___13,324___1.92%___1.92%
LV___5,584___0.80%___0.81%
MILW___32,076___4.62%___4.62%
MKT___5,235___0.75%___0.76%
MP___18,112___2.61%___2.61%
MP-IGN___2,572___0.37%___0.37%
N&W___8,986___1.30%___1.31%
NC&SL___3,603___0.52%___0.52%
NH___6,012___0.87%___0.86%
NKP___11,255___1.62%___1.63%
NP___19,317___2.78%___2.77%
NYC___66,867___9.64%___9.64%
P&LE___4,118___0.59%___0.59%
PRR___64,670___9.32%___9.33%
RDG___7,639___1.10%___1.11%
SAL___12,396___1.79%___1.79%
SLSF___13,255___1.91%___1.91%
SOO___8,728___1.26%___1.27%
SOU___26,331___3.80%___3.79%
SP-Pac___27,757___4.00%___4.01%
SP-T&NO___7,438___1.07%___1.07%
SSW___3,700___0.53%___0.54%
T&P___4,288___0.62%___0.61%
UP___23,758___3.42%___3.43%
WAB___11,572___1.67%___1.68%
WM___2,143___0.31%___0.31%
WP___1,995___0.29%___0.28%
Total___693,682___100.00%___100.00%

(The "Number" and "Nat'l %" columns above are from Tim's 1949 list of
boxcars. His data are at "4060totalboxcarsUSownership.xls" in the
files section of this list. The "Random %" column is the average
percentage of cars per train generated by my Excel program after
100,000 iterations. Each train consisted of 40 boxcars.)

While running the program, I tallied the maximum number of cars for
each railroad over all the iterations. In a 40 boxcar train, the
average number of cars would be 40 times the national percentage
shown in the above table. For example, the average number of SP-Pac
cars would 40 * 4% = 1.6 cars – 1 or 2 cars per train. Any
particular 40 boxcar train may have more or less SP-Pac cars (0 to
40). After 100,000 trials, there were in fact trains with no SP-Pac
boxcars, but no train had more than 9 of them. Here are the results
for all the railroads:

RR___Nat'l Avg___Max Rnd
ACL___0.80___6
AT&SF___2.03___9
B&M___0.16___3
B&O___1.65___10
C&EI___0.07___3
C&NW___1.34___9
C&O___1.25___8
CB&Q___1.82___9
CGA___0.30___5
CGW___0.21___4
CMO___0.20___4
CNJ___0.10___4
CNJ-CRP___0.07___3
CRI&P___0.99___7
D&H___0.14___4
DL&W___0.44___5
DM&IR___0.02___2
DRG&W___0.29___4
EJ&E___0.08___3
ERIE___0.70___7
GM&O___0.36___5
GN___1.29___8
GTW___0.49___5
IC___1.23___8
KCS___0.17___4
L&N___0.77___6
LV___0.32___4
MILW___1.85___9
MKT___0.30___5
MP___1.04___7
MP-IGN___0.15___4
N&W___0.52___6
NC&SL___0.21___4
NH___0.35___5
NKP___0.65___6
NP___1.11___8
NYC___3.86___14
P&LE___0.24___4
PRR___3.73___13
RDG___0.44___6
SAL___0.71___7
SLSF___0.76___7
SOO___0.50___5
SOU___1.52___9
SP-Pac___1.60___9
SP-T&NO___0.43___5
SSW___0.21___5
T&P___0.25___4
UP___1.37___8
WAB___0.67___6
WM___0.12___4
WP___0.12___3
Total___40.00___NA

("Nat'l Avg" is the average number of boxcars in a 40 car train based
on the national average; "Max Rnd" is the maximum number of boxcars
for any 40 car train after 100,000 iterations of the Excel program.)

Best wishes,
Larry Ostresh
Laramie, Wyoming


Re: DTI trucks

Tim O'Connor
 

Brian

You may not be aware but the earliest version of those trucks
I've seen were cast in 1934 by ASF, while the DT&I cars were
built (with different castings from unknown foundry) in 1949.
So someone had the coil-leaf-coil trucks before DT&I. (Or they
were applied to some other DT&I cars.)

Tim

At 8/17/2008 02:43 PM Sunday, you wrote:
I have 5-6 of the DT&I cars located nearby some still have those trucks. I
posted some photos to the list years ago 2004 but removed them later.
Brian J Carlson P.E.
Cheektowaga NY


DTI trucks

Brian J Carlson <brian@...>
 

I have 5-6 of the DT&I cars located nearby some still have those trucks. I
posted some photos to the list years ago 2004 but removed them later.
Brian J Carlson P.E.
Cheektowaga NY


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Gene Green wrote:
-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education - say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."
Yes, Gene, I agree that the person in the street thinks of the arithmetic mean as the "average," and that definition is fixed, which is why I expressed doubt about the concept of a "true average." For a unimodal symmetrical distribution, the mean, median and mode lie at the same place, so for many situations you can lump them all together as the "average." But the minute the distribution is skewed, and many real-world distributions are skewed, the three definitions give different answers, and the "middle" of the distribution no longer lies at the most frequent value (the mode).

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@...
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: Union Pacific Stock car class

dmueller183@...
 

You mean 46759? There is no 46795 in the 1940, 1950, or
1953 ORER's.

...and ditto for july 1959 dave





</HTML>


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Tim O'Connor
 

Brian

I was looking at a drawing but now I can't find it -- but
now I think I'd rather have those coil-leaf-coil trucks as
found on the DT&I 14000-14299 box cars.

This spring package was applied to at least two different
sideframe castings. I'll send you the excellents scans I
have of each sideframe with these interesting springs. One
of the castings (which does not match the DT&I cars) has
an ASF foundry mark.

Tim O'Connor

Another truck high on my list wish is a 50 ton roller
bearing truck... Let's see...

50t rolling bearing (Buckeye/National/ASF/Barber/Scullin)
50t Barber S-2 w/ spring plank
50t National C-1
50t Gould
Tim,

Gould made a lot of trucks. Which one did you have in mind?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


DYLX Cover Hopper Photo

Kurt Laughlin <fleeta@...>
 

Does anyone know of a photo of the DYLX covered hoppers (Dri-Flo types, I believe) BESIDES the one in the Classic Freight Cars book? I'm looking for an image prior to the formation of Sinclair-Koppers in 1964.

Thanks,
KL


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Tim O'Connor
 

-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I
hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or
mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education -
say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."
Gene Green

Larry posted his comparison spreadsheet showing a straight line
fleet-percentage vs observed-percentage for each railroad. I then
said that one really needs to compute a standard deviation (using
multiple data sets as Larry added) to know how closely observations
match the Tim's theory of random distribution.

A simple way is to consider a sample of 50 box cars. For a railroad
that owns 2% of the U.S. fleet, the "average" number of its box cars
in the sample would be 1. But for a SINGLE sample, what's the chance
that NONE of its cars are present? Easy .98**50 ~= .36. That is, 36%
chance. For a railroad with 10% of the U.S. fleet, .90**50 ~= .005.
That is, there's only a 1 in 200 probability that NONE of those cars
are in the sample.

If you have a layout that has 100 box cars, you probably should own
300 to 400 box cars proportionately distributed among railroads except
for the home road, which should be over-represented. (You need so many
cars because this gives you a "precision" of 0.25% so you can have
examples from very small as well as large railroads.)

Then allow random assignments to take their course -- over time you'll
see different trains but the 'average' train (after hundreds of samples)
will match the national fleet percentages (after discounting for the
home road cars).

Of course, you can then add to this random mix, local facts that skew
the mix. Perhaps you have an auto parts or assembly plant. Or maybe a
grain elevator that receives only corn, or only wheat. Or it may be a
certain time of year -- e.g. grain rush. Etc etc. Then you can 'skew'
some car assignments to reflect those traffic patterns.

Tim O'Connor


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Brian Leppert <b.leppert@...>
 

--- In STMFC@..., Tim O'Connor <timboconnor@...> wrote:

Andy

Another truck high on my list wish is a 50 ton roller
bearing truck... Let's see...

50t rolling bearing (Buckeye/National/ASF/Barber/Scullin)
50t Barber S-2 w/ spring plank
50t National C-1
50t Gould
Tim,

Gould made a lot of trucks. Which one did you have in mind?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


Re: What HO truck(s) do we STMFC'ers want?

Brian Leppert <b.leppert@...>
 

--- In STMFC@..., "gn3397" <heninger@...> wrote:

--- In STMFC@..., "al_brown03" <abrown@> wrote:

--- In STMFC@..., "gn3397" <heninger@> wrote:
<snip>

I would like to see a Dalman-Andrews. Unfortunately, only GN,
Soo
Line, and ACL
modelers could use it, to my knowledge. Oh well, I can hope.
To your Dalman-Andrews list, I'd add several series of SAL cars.
That
ACL had them too, I didn't know.

Al Brown, Melbourne, Fla.
Mr. Brown,

Now that you mention it, I am in error. I meant SAL. Thanks for
correcting my error. I need
them for my GN cars, which I am most familiar with.

Sincerely,
Robert D. Heninger
Iowa City, IA
Spokane, Portland & Seattle can be added to the list. These were ex-
GN gons aquired in the '50s and converted to wood chip cars.

I am aware of SAL B-5 boxcars with these trucks, but what were other
SAL classes?

Brian Leppert
Tahoe Model Works
Carson City, NV


Re: Battleship Gons trucks

Charles Hladik
 

Al,
A couple of folks I know that have built these have used the old Cape
Line Pilchner Patent truck. These are now available from Bethlehem Car Works, I
believe.


Chuck Hladik
Rutland Railroad
Virginia Division
NMRA L5756



**************Looking for a car that's sporty, fun and fits in your budget?
Read reviews on AOL Autos.
(http://autos.aol.com/cars-Volkswagen-Jetta-2009/expert-review?ncid=aolaut00030000000007 )


Re: Box car counts by RR - NMRA Charles collection

Larry Kline
 

Tim O'Connor wrote:
Larry, I suspect Tim would have recommended computing the standard deviation of this data set, in order to see how closely these observed differences from the mean values match the expected standard deviation. One does not "expect" all values in a sample data set from a large population to match the mean values, but one does expect that the mean of the deviations is predictable. If it is, then you can make a case that your data set is a good representation of a hypothetical sample. If not, then the data set may be skewed, or your expected sample may be incorrect (i.e. Tim's theory of distribution may be incorrect).

I believe that the random variables in this situation are the boxcar counts for each railroad. The actual boxcar counts for US railroads are not random variables. A single set of data, like the numbers I posted for the Charles collection, has only one value for each random variable so a standard deviation cannot be computed.

On the other hand, if all of the trains in all of the conductor's books owned by list members were treated as separate observations, then standard deviations could be computed for the number of boxcars observed for each railroad. The data in the conductors books could also be aggregated for each railroad.

Larry Kline
Pittsburgh, PA


Re: Box car counts by RR - NMRA Charles collection

Larry Kline
 

Dave Nelson wrote:
Larry, there are a couple of errors in that listing and I think you should correct them. First, as the images were taken on the PRR you should not count any PRR cars in the sample. Home Road cars are not what the basic Distribution Hypothesis is about. Second, I get a lower total even after that so I think you might have missed something when you tabulated the numbers.

I sent my Excel spreadsheet to Dave and we agree on the numbers,

I made a folder in the files section called _Boxcar counts-Charles collection_ and moved the two files I previously posted to the folder. I added a third file with the PRR boxcars omitted.

Larry Kline
Pittsburgh, PA


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Gene Green <bierglaeser@...>
 

--- In STMFC@..., Anthony Thompson <thompson@...> wrote:

An average always means the same thing, Malcolm, though in a
skewed distribution it will not lie at the same location as the most
frequent data, which lay persons usually assume the average to be
(and > which it is in a symmetrical distribution). But I have no idea
what a > "true average" is.

-Does- average always mean the same thing? I learned (correctly, I
hope) that "average" could be one of three things; mean, median or
mode. Usually when folks - those unencumbered by formal education -
say "average" they actually mean "arithmetic mean."

Gene Green
OitwTtoEP


Re: diversions.

Bill McCoy
 

Diversions could be filed by the beneficial owner of the car's lading
as shown on the Bill of Lading and reflected on the Waybill that
accompanied the car. Up to 3 diversions could be made on a car IIRC.
To protect the through rates from origin to ultimate destination the
routing specified in the rate tariff that may refer to a routing
guide (tariff) had to be protected. If the SAL received a carload of
west coast lumber from the SLSF at Birmingham consigned to a customer
in Petersburg, VA and the shipper of consignee wanted to divert
(reconsign) the car to a customer on the SAL in Savannah they would
have to file the diversion before the car departed Hamlet, NC. (Look
at an SAL map and you will see why). Protecting the through rate was
very important as the local rate from a SAL point beyond Hamlet would
add significantly to the transportation cost. If the customer in
Savannah was located on the Southern Ry, closed to reciprocal
switching requiring the Southern to have a line haul, the car would
have to be diverted on the SLSF before delivery to the SAL at
Birmingham. This is because the Southern had no routes that would
allow the SAL to be intermediate between the SAL and Southern on
traffic moving via the Birmingham gateway to Southern RY destinations.

Diversions were a serious business and one of my first duties every
morning was to check to see that Hamlet had made my diversions from
the day before. If we missed the diversion we had to protect the
through rate even if the car was then out of route. Lumber and west
coast produce were the major commodities diverted and Charlotte had a
flock of brokers. Later to avoid the pain of switching out cars
already classified to a different destination the diversion rules on
CSX were changed to require that the diversion be filed before the
car arrived at the last diversion point.

Bill McCoy
Jax, FL

--- In STMFC@..., Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
wrote:

I'd like to try to clarify the diversion thing a bit based on what
I believe to have been the rules. The excerpt from Don Holbrook
below is a nice summary of what happened. BTW, all that I've read so
far from Don is consistent with my experience.

There were limits to circuity in diverting cars. The cars had to
be diverted/reconsigned in a manner such that their path from origin
to destination was a legal route, as shown in the routing guide.
There was a single routing guide that was itself a tariff and one of
several supplementary tariffs referenced by most commodity and class
rate tariffs. {note: other tariffs refereneced by most rate tariffs
were the Open and Prepay Station List, ORER, demurrage tariff and
Uniform Freight calssifications } The rouitng guide had all of the
valid routes. That included most combinations of railroads and
junctions that did not cause excess circuity. Circuity was expressed
as a percentage of short line miles [There was another supplementary
tariff that had short line miles between all points.]. I don't
remeber the actual factor, but let's use 120 for example.

Here is an example. From Roseburg, OR (lumber loading area) to
Provincetowm MA, the short line mileage is 3653, routed SP-Ogden-UP-
Omaha-CNW-Chicago-NYC-Framingham-NH. USing the 120 percent rule, we
can go 4384 miles. Here's a route we could use to delay one of those
lumber rollers. SP-Portland-UP-Denver-MP-MEMphis-SOU-Washington-PRR-
New York-NH. That route is 4375 miles. At any point between
Roseburg and Little Rock the car could be diveted to a direct route
via Chicago or St. Louis and NYC to Framingham.

=========================
> Don said
Diversions were specified by the broker. However, a car could be
diverted once without cost to the broker providing the car was
going
in a straight line movement between two end points. Example would
be
diversion lumber moving from Pacific Northwest via MSTL to Peoria
and
Peoria being the broker specified destination. It the car reached
Albert Lea, MN and was diverted to Indianpolis, IN for the final
customer the diversion was free. However, if the diversion was from
Albert Lea, MN to Sioux Falls, SD then, depending on era, was
either
treated as a diversion with a specific charge, or as an entirely
new
shipment because of the diversion being back in a westward
movement.
Brokers made every attempt to sell their product enroute and in a
linear fashion.


Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383
New England Rail Shipper Directories
19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


Re: Car distribution vs era

Douglas Harding <dharding@...>
 

"Tom's 1938 Register" was based upon the American Guide Series published during the depression, by the Federal Writers Project of
the Works Progress Administration. The State of Iowa guide is a series of driving tours one can take to see the state. Each town
on the tour is listed, along with pertinent info, business, industry, tourist highlights, etc.

Tom read through each guide (not every state had a guide published) and listed the business and industries, he did his best to
determine which railroad might have served. In general a very helpful addition to one's collection, but not a 100% complete, nor
accurate. I know for the Iowa listings I have spotted several errors for railroads. He did publish an errata sheet, which could be
downloaded from his website.

Doug Harding
www.iowacentralrr.org


Re: A Purpose For Frt Car Distribution Studies

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Malcolm Laughlin wrote:
I'm OK with the average as the core datum, but recognizing that the average in the car distribution case may be at one side of a skewed distribution orm otherwise not a true average. Any average is better than zero or infinity as the starting point.
An average always means the same thing, Malcolm, though in a skewed distribution it will not lie at the same location as the most frequent data, which lay persons usually assume the average to be (and which it is in a symmetrical distribution). But I have no idea what a "true average" is.

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@...
Publishers of books on railroad history

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