Date   

Re: G-N versus Consist Data for train construction

Allen Rueter
 

It seems to me you might want four pools of cars. home road pool, favored/connecting interchange pool, National pool common cars , and national pool rare cars(<1%). you would want at least one standard deviation, if not two, extra cars in these pools to create
variety .


now you know why there is never enough staging space.
--
Allen Rueter
StLouis MO


Re: Freight car Distribution

Greg Martin
 

In the past five year I have heard this kind of thinking only once when
cars were so short you prayed for an empty and it went like this, " sure the
government says we have to give you a car, but they never said when..."
Now that is about as stupid as it gets as in the short three years later the
railroads and TTX are storing cars on every short line that is willing to
take them at $25.00 a day... OUCH!

So I think the message here is a bit out of the realm of the real
transportation world. Not having a car because of a shortage in the harvest season
is a local agents nightmare, as Tony will attest to, but that is why they
were there and paid well. All shipments were equally as important to him
because his bonus depended on it.

There were foreign road agents in every area of the country at the time
hoping to get that load/loads of perishables to his receiver. As an example
that I once described to Bill Welch if your GN packing house in Minneapolis
MN wanted those winter Navels at the HEAD END of the harvest rush the local
WFE agent might have to work with an SP or ATSF agent in Bakersfield and be
willing to give up some WFE cars to the origin carrier to secure the
needed business. He might have to scour the Bakersfield yards to look for
empties or dispatch cars from eastern Washington to get the cars required if the
origin carrier was short of cars to cover the business. He, the WFE rep.,
would likely have to move the cars car hire free to do so. This was a car
accounting nightmare as it required a "reclaim" to cover the letter quote
but nonetheless it was done. This was a marketing decision not an operation
department decision. But it also meant a better relationship for the shipper
who had a chance for added revenue (read as a better price for the lading)
and a "whose your buddy" for the local SP or ATSF agent. It was how
business was done and still is.

Greg Martin

In a message dated 4/14/2010 8:44:09 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
cdnrailmarine@... writes:

Whose first rule?

Railroads look to saving every cent they can.

Not all shipments are equal, there are lots that can wait until tomorrow
when you have your own cars available.

Shipments are rated by profitability therefore the shipments that are seen
to give the best rate of return will get cars today, the also rans get
cars when available.

Of course this is a simplification but so is to say that any available car
will be used.

I would naive to say politics, neighbouring industries etc don't enter
into the equation.

Ross McLeod Calgary


Re: Freight car Distribution

lnnrr <lnnrr@...>
 

Folks,
Like Viv, I'm out of my league in all this. My only real acquaintance
with statistics is of the Mark Twain variety (i.e. lies). From what
I read, my view is that if I don't have and can't get the exact data
on the cars actually traveling on my chosen piece of prototype, the
G-N hypothesis gives me some level of practical guidance.
The opposite way to go might be to walk into a hobby shop and just
buy everything that seems reasonable and appealing. Thank all you
folks that care enough to think this stuff through and try to get it
all right. Even if you don't get it all perfected, it has to be
better than my random choices.
Chuck Peck

--- In STMFC@..., "Viv Brice" <viv.brice@...> wrote:

Guys,
I'm getting confused - I have no experience in this area and can only
comment on what I read, with great interest I might add, on this incredibly
knowledgeable list. I might also be totally out in left field!

However, to me, we often seem to be talking about traffic and freight cars
in the same breath implying that traffic originating on road X always uses
road X freight cars. Surely traffic was loaded into whatever MTY freight
cars were available, which may or may not be home road, may or may not be
cars being headed 'home' or even may be any car which just happens to be in
the yard and fits the requirement.

As I read it, the G-N 'method/concept/whatever we call it' is not concerned
with traffic, but only with freight cars. Thus Mike's large number of SP
freight cars would probably not represent all of the SP originated traffic,
which would also be being carried in other cars headed east, say PRR, NYC,
etc. Indeed, there is no reason to assume that all of the SP cars contain SP
originated freight (although this may be stretching things a bit - I bow
here to other with more knowledge of the area's traffic flow than I have).

My point is that, from what I've read on this list, traffic and the cars
included in G-N are not necessarily synonymous and we need to be very
careful about assuming that something that affects traffic automatically has
the same effect on freight car distribution.

Regards, Viv Brice
An SPF from 'Down Under'





Re: Freight car Distribution

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Ross McLeod wrote:
What about car hire?
Not sure you would use any available car if your car hire account is out of balance.
Those foreign cars on your railroad are costing you money by the hour and by the mile, they should be rushed to the interchange before midnight if your car hire is out of balance.
Sure, Ross, but the FIRST RULE is to "Protect the shipment." You could not care less about car hire if a shipper needs that empty car. Now of course you don't keep empties sitting around idle, and they would certainly be moved homeward (or via reverse route) if not needed.

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@...
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: Freight car Distribution

Ross McLeod <cdnrailmarine@...>
 

"Exactly right, VIv, and that's in fact the entire basis of why
the G-N idea can be true: you used what you had if you were short of
cars, REGARDLESS of the AAR rules, and that available empty could be
almost anything."
 
What about car hire?
 
Not sure you would use any available car if your car hire account is out of balance.
 
Those foreign cars on your railroad are costing you money by the hour and by the mile,  they should be rushed to the interchange before midnight if your car hire is out of balance. 
 
Ross McLeod Calgary 

 

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Re: Freight car Distribution

Greg Martin
 

Ross and all,

Let's not forget that car hire was mostly a paper exchange unless you were
really out of balance and remember if you don't have a car to load you
don't have the revenue stream. The car hire was never as much of an issue as
the lost loading. The most important part to remember is the penalties that
the AAR imposed for ignoring the service rules and the possible embargo if
you let it go too far. Let's not forget the case of the SP&S and their
dilemma in the early 1950's and the reasons for the acquisition of 10' 2"IH
40-foot boxcars.

Greg Martin

In a message dated 4/14/2010 6:23:11 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
cdnrailmarine@... writes:

What about car hire?

Not sure you would use any available car if your car hire account is out
of balance.

Those foreign cars on your railroad are costing you money by the hour and
by the mile, they should be rushed to the interchange before midnight if
your car hire is out of balance.

Ross McLeod Calgary


Re: was LCL - Stop Off traffic

Ross McLeod <cdnrailmarine@...>
 

"The railroad term would "stop off to partially unload". Freight rate would
be for the entire weight of the commodity from origin to final destination,
with a stop off charge for each stop off point."

 
Plus out of line haul charges, if applicable.
 
Out of line would be the extra distance the car would have to travel to the stop off point versus being shipped direct to the destination. 
 
Some railroads would waive OLH charges if the out of route mileage did not exceed 1/3 of their haul.
 
I understood it was the high cost of cedar lumber that fueled the demand for partial loads.   
 
Ross McLeod Calgary.  
  

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Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


Re: Freight car Distribution

Aley, Jeff A
 

Viv,

I think you might have missed out on the Car Service rules, published in the ORER. Those rules indicate what cars should be used for loading.

To simplify, they state that preference should always be given to foreign-road cars for shipments that will travel off-line. They also state that foreign cars should be loaded toward their home road (or to any point beyond if the home road is part of the route).

Anecdotal evidence shows that the rules were followed "most" of the time, but certainly not "all" of the time. This is because of the (unwritten) rule 0: PROTECT THE SHIPMENT.


Regards,

-Jeff


From: STMFC@... [mailto:STMFC@...] On Behalf Of Viv Brice
Sent: Wednesday, April 14, 2010 4:25 PM
To: STMFC@...
Subject: [STMFC] Re: Freight car Distribution



Guys,
I'm getting confused - I have no experience in this area and can only
comment on what I read, with great interest I might add, on this incredibly
knowledgeable list. I might also be totally out in left field!

However, to me, we often seem to be talking about traffic and freight cars
in the same breath implying that traffic originating on road X always uses
road X freight cars. Surely traffic was loaded into whatever MTY freight
cars were available, which may or may not be home road, may or may not be
cars being headed 'home' or even may be any car which just happens to be in
the yard and fits the requirement.

As I read it, the G-N 'method/concept/whatever we call it' is not concerned
with traffic, but only with freight cars. Thus Mike's large number of SP
freight cars would probably not represent all of the SP originated traffic,
which would also be being carried in other cars headed east, say PRR, NYC,
etc. Indeed, there is no reason to assume that all of the SP cars contain SP
originated freight (although this may be stretching things a bit - I bow
here to other with more knowledge of the area's traffic flow than I have).

My point is that, from what I've read on this list, traffic and the cars
included in G-N are not necessarily synonymous and we need to be very
careful about assuming that something that affects traffic automatically has
the same effect on freight car distribution.

Regards, Viv Brice
An SPF from 'Down Under'


Re: Freight car Distribution

Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
 

Viv Brice wrote:
However, to me, we often seem to be talking about traffic and freight cars in the same breath implying that traffic originating on road X always uses road X freight cars. Surely traffic was loaded into whatever MTY freight cars were available, which may or may not be home road, may or may not be cars being headed 'home' or even may be any car which just happens to be in the yard and fits the requirement.
Exactly right, VIv, and that's in fact the entire basis of why the G-N idea can be true: you used what you had if you were short of cars, REGARDLESS of the AAR rules, and that available empty could be almost anything.

Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA
2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com
(510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@...
Publishers of books on railroad history


Re: Box/auto distribution 1938

Wendye Ware
 

Howdy

Here is an update on the distribution of box and auto cars on the UP between Laramie and Rawlins in 1938, with tables that show the cars classified by the ICC region of the owners. This analysis and my previous comparison of data for specific railroads (# 89886) lead me to conclude that the G-N hypothesis does not work very well for the UP in 1938.

The first table lists the names, abbreviations, and number of box/auto/ventilated cars of the ICC regions. The number of cars is for cars in interchange service on ICC Class 1 railroads and their lessees only and is based on the January 1938 ORER.

ICC Region: Abbrev; ORER N of cars
Central Eastern: CE; 130,863
Central Western: CW; 144,296
Great Lakes: GL; 156,429
New England: NE; 23,947
Northwestern: NW; 126,201
Pocahontas: POC; 18,694
Southern: S; 100,611
Southwestern: SW; 56,970
TOTAL: 758,011

The next table gives the number of cars listed in the three Freight Conductors' Train Books by Fitz, Ferguson, and Fraley, classified by region.

Abbrev: N of train book cars
CE: 145
CW: 1,408
GL: 269
NE: 3
NW: 218
POC: 16
S: 73
SW: 111
TOTAL: 2,243

In addition to the cars shown in the table above, the train books list 5 cars from the CN and 19 others whose reporting marks were illegible or could not be found in the ORER. There are thus a total of 2,243 + 5 + 19 = 2,267 box/auto cars reported in the train books.

Data from these tables may be combined to provide a test of the G-N hypothesis of freight car distribution. My understanding of this hypothesis is that it predicts that the proportions of cars observed in a sample of real trains should approximate the national proportions. However, the home road cars should be removed before comparing the proportions.

In this case, the home road is the UP, part of the CW region. There are 27,624 UP box/auto cars listed in the 1938 ORER and 935 in the conductors' train books, so these should be removed from the appropriate tables. This leaves 116,672 and 473 cars in the CW region for the ORER and train books respectively, with totals of 730,387 and 1,308 cars. Once this is done, the percentages of cars in the ORER and train books are as follows:

Region: ORER, Train books
CE: 17.9%, 11.1%
CW: 16.0%, 36.2%
GL: 21.4%, 20.6%
NE: 3.3%, 0.2%
NW: 17.3%, 16.7%
POC: 2.6%, 1.2%
S: 13.8%, 5.6%
SW: 7.8%, 8.5%
Total: 100.0%, 100.0%

Several of these percentages (GL, NW, and SW) appear very comparable. However, the CE, NE, and S regions are greatly underestimated in the train books while the CW has over twice the representation that it should have.

Another way of comparing the tables is to allocate the 1,308 box/auto cars (2,243-935 UP cars) from the train books according to the ORER distribution and compare the actual and predicted numbers of cars:

Region: Actual; Predicted
CE: 145; 234
CW: 473; 209
GL: 269; 280
NE: 3; 43
NW: 218; 226
POC: 16; 33
S: 73; 180
SW: 111; 102
TOTAL: 1,308; 1,307 (Predicted does not sum to 1,308 because of rounding errors.)

The CW region contains the SP as well as the UP and we have had many discussions over many years on this list about the well-known over-representation of its cars in trains across Wyoming. 201 of the train book cars belong to the SP, whereas it "should" have only 44. This leaves an "excess" of 201-44=157 cars, which arguably should be removed from the 473 train book cars in the CW region. If they were removed, then the CW region would be left with 473-157=316 cars which is still half again as many as the 209 it should have.

So does this data support the G-N hypothesis? In my opinion it doesn't, but I stress that this is just an opinion and nothing more – others may decide it provides fine support, or the data have so many flaws it should be ignored. One flaw, a small sample size, will be ameliorated in the months and years to come: I still have over 120 train books to transcribe for the Laramie-Rawlins run in the late 1930s. With an average of 2,300 cars per book, 450 of them foreign box/autos, eventually the sample size should exceed 50,000 foreign box/autos.

I think I recall Tim Gilbert writing that the G-N hypothesis fits the data well during economic prosperity but does less well during recessions and depressions. The year 1938 was during the Great Depression, of course. The high proportion of home cars (41%) is another indication that companies may be keeping their cars close by. It might be that modelers wishing to have a realistic mix of cars on their trains should pick an era first – or perhaps even a specific year and season, and then check what was happening in the national economy at that time. The choice of the G-N vs. a regional (or any other) model for an accurate freight car composition may well depend on such ephemera.

Best wishes,
Larry Ostresh
Laramie, Wyoming


Re: Freight car Distribution

Viv Brice
 

Guys,
I'm getting confused - I have no experience in this area and can only
comment on what I read, with great interest I might add, on this incredibly
knowledgeable list. I might also be totally out in left field!

However, to me, we often seem to be talking about traffic and freight cars
in the same breath implying that traffic originating on road X always uses
road X freight cars. Surely traffic was loaded into whatever MTY freight
cars were available, which may or may not be home road, may or may not be
cars being headed 'home' or even may be any car which just happens to be in
the yard and fits the requirement.

As I read it, the G-N 'method/concept/whatever we call it' is not concerned
with traffic, but only with freight cars. Thus Mike's large number of SP
freight cars would probably not represent all of the SP originated traffic,
which would also be being carried in other cars headed east, say PRR, NYC,
etc. Indeed, there is no reason to assume that all of the SP cars contain SP
originated freight (although this may be stretching things a bit - I bow
here to other with more knowledge of the area's traffic flow than I have).

My point is that, from what I've read on this list, traffic and the cars
included in G-N are not necessarily synonymous and we need to be very
careful about assuming that something that affects traffic automatically has
the same effect on freight car distribution.

Regards, Viv Brice
An SPF from 'Down Under'


Re: LCL

Paul <buygone@...>
 

Dennis:



The railroad term would "stop off to partially unload". Freight rate would
be for the entire weight of the commodity from origin to final destination,
with a stop off charge for each stop off point.



Paul C. Koehler



_____

From: STMFC@... [mailto:STMFC@...] On Behalf Of
soolinehistory
Sent: Wednesday, April 14, 2010 2:36 PM
To: STMFC@...
Subject: [STMFC] LCL






--- In STMFC@yahoogroups. <mailto:STMFC%40yahoogroups.com> com, thomas
christensen <thomasjonly@...> wrote:

Occasionally while unloading a car you would come to a layer of craft
paper, at which point you would close the door and reseal it. Or you would
open one up and there would be a partial load with the paper on top - LCL.

Just a slight correction. Technically, this isn't LCL. LCL is when multiple
SHIPPERS have small loads in the same car. In the case of this carload of
lumber, it's one shipper serving multiple customers under the tariff
provisions that allowed multiple consignees.

Therefore, for the numbers crunchers, these cars will be counted as full
carloads of lumber (which they are) not LCL.

Dennis


Re: ORER .pdf's on Google

Ray Breyer
 

There appear to be 4 full editions in
Google books that are downloadable as
.pdf's.  They are  from 1904, 1912, 1913, and
1917. 
Use the search terms railway equipment register and specify
full view only.
Dave Nelson
Hi Dave,

I'm only seeing 1913 and 1917 in Google Books, and none at Internet Archive. Can you provide a direct link?

Ray Breyer


LCL

soolinehistory <destorzek@...>
 

--- In STMFC@..., thomas christensen <thomasjonly@...> wrote:

 Occasionally while unloading a car you would come to a layer of craft paper, at which point you would close the door and reseal it. Or you would open one up and there would be a partial load with the paper on top - LCL.
Just a slight correction. Technically, this isn't LCL. LCL is when multiple SHIPPERS have small loads in the same car. In the case of this carload of lumber, it's one shipper serving multiple customers under the tariff provisions that allowed multiple consignees.

Therefore, for the numbers crunchers, these cars will be counted as full carloads of lumber (which they are) not LCL.

Dennis


Re: Lumber Loading

np328
 

I'm stumped. Why would there be no lumber on flat cars in Oct-Dec of 1951? Was this the time period after the Streamliner accident (a piece of lumber shifted on a flat car, and broke the windows of a passing Streamliner, showering the passengers with broken glass) ?
Regards, -Jeff

I cannot speak for other railroads however on the NP, after lumber on an open car shifted and took down a signal, lumber loads on open cars both flats and gons, were handled on a separate train east. Traveling at a 35 mph restriction until diesels took over and then it was granted a 50 mph speed limit. I want to say it was the J manifest. And yes, oscillations caused by the steam locomotives carried through the train were thought to be the cause.
So if you looked at NP trains headed east, you would find the same phenomenon, flats vs XM's carrying lumber.
Jim Dick


G-N versus Consist Data for train construction

Mike Brock <brockm@...>
 

After several days of reading various views on the value of the G-N
hypothesis AS FAR AS PROVIDING A GUIDE FOR BUILDING A BOX CAR FLEET, I think the following applies...not unlike Charlie
Vlk's conclusion.

First, a small minority [ including myself ] of modelers on the STMFC have
access to actual frt train consists. There are those that cover the UP from
Laramie to Rawlins in 1938, 1947, 1949, 1951, and for Cheyenne to
Laramie...1956. Given the relatively small number of trains covered...34 during about a month in
the 1949 book...compared to the number operating [ the ratio is about
1/35 ], the consist information simply is too small to reach definitive
conclusions about the other 34 trains in a given day...let alone what
happened during the other 11 months. OTOH, the G-N hypothesis does give a
possible population over the long run if one makes certain assumptions...for
example, that "away" cars were more or less distributed randomly among other RR's. The actual
train consists appear to deviate considerably at times from the G-N
hypothesis [ the infamous SP cars for example but others as well ] but,
again, this is a short run view.

Those that have actual consists might like to model them even with
compression. Uh oh. For those few who don't know [ surely they care <G> ], I have video of a UP frt train pulling 36 SP box cars in a train of 96 cars. That is 37.5% SP box cars. OK...if I assume a max train length [ compression due to layout size ] of 35 cars, the train will need 13 SP box cars and, given that I compress to 8 frt trains down from 35 in a day, I'll probably need about 6 more SP box cars so that they are represented in the other 7 trains. That means that I will need 19 SP box cars in my fleet. However, SP box cars only represent 4% of the total national fleet. So, if I use the G-N hypothesis as a guide I'll need about
475 box cars in order for me to provide the SP cars. However, I
find that an EJ&E box car is in one of the trains in my
frt conductor book. EJ&E box cars represent only .002 of the national fleet. Hence, [ 0.95 cars ] I can have almost one car [ well, I'll leave off one of the cut levers ]. However, there is an FEC box car showing in a video near Hermosa Tunnel in 1953. FEC had 190 box cars...or 0.0002 of the national fleet. My 475 car population will provide me with 0.095 cars. That might get me 4 ribs on an end. Nooooo problem. I'll just increase my box car population to 4750. That will just about get me the car [ again, missing a cut lever ] and frequent visits to a therapist in Orlando.

The G-N theory is interesting and useful because it tells us
that box cars populated the various RR's in proportions somewhat similar to the national fleet over "long" periods of time. It doesn't appear to help much in modeling trains because trains often were "designed"
for specific tasks [ a lumber train, for instance ] and such a train might draw cars from a year's population at rates not similar to other trains. IOW, a model lumber train on the UP
originating from Cal might require 15 SP box cars while a model merchandise train from the northwest might require no SP box cars. Those of us with frt train consists are fortunate IF we are modelers modeling real trains...even those compressed...because we can simply acquire the cars we need [ or try ]. Fortunately for me I only have consists for about 70 trains in two different yrs. Those without such consists are left to use the G-N hypothesis to provide a frt car population. I don't know what one without consists would do to build individual trains...I suppose some manipulation of the G-N data. It can be done, of course, but the frt train consists I have access to seem to show trains of cars NOT in the mode of distribution that G-N proposes. For example, my frt conductor book shows a train of 40 MTY reefers...all but 3 PFE, 2 box cars in the middle of the reefers [ one loaded GM&O going to Butte, MT ], 2 tank cars and 26 box cars loaded with bauxite ore headed to the Northwest...not one UP box car [ or PA ] in the mix. There were 4 CN box cars, however, and 3 Frisco, 3 Q and, of course, the required NP. Not exactly your national fleet. I would also think that some sort of "small number" factor would need to be used with the G-N. How else to get that FEC car?

Mike Brock


D&RGW General Arrangement Drawings for Flat Cars on eBay

rwitt_2000
 

Gentlemen:

There are two general arrangement drawings listed on eBay for the D&RGW.

Series 22200-22249 built 1951 with bulkheads for canister service (the
set includes a 8x10 photo), Item number:170472813001

Series 23000-23099 built 1957, Item number:170472814830

Happy bidding,

Bob Witt


Re: CGW 1934 X29

Clark Propst
 

Ron, the late CGW X29 style cars I have on the computer are all 87000s with Coil-Elliptic trucks.
Clark Propst


Re: Lumber Loading

Clark Propst
 

One of the older local modelers told me about working Saturdays while still in school unloading box cars. Again, being thin he was put in the car to hand out the first pieces. He said sometimes he'd have to work for a 1/2 hr of longer to get the first piece out. He also said he really enjoyed the smell of the fresh wood.

NP 26619 LUMBER 119 ALBERT LEA BACK HAUL

The car listed above was in an M&StL Minneapolis to Peoria time freight. This car must be ping-ponging across the railroad waiting for a buyer?

Clark Propst


Re: Lumber Loading

Greg Martin
 

I'm stumped. Why would there be no lumber on flat cars in Oct-Dec of 1951? Was this the time period after the Streamliner accident (a piece of lumber shifted on a flat car, and broke the windows of a passing Streamliner, showering the passengers with broken glass) ??

Regards,

-Jeff






Jeff,

You have to look at what generally shipped on flatcars during this era and understand the commodity as well as the industry. In all freight movements there is a correlation to the commodities. As Dennis said (and I agree and I am sure Tony will as well) that most cars loaded with dimensional lumber moved in boxcars (think weather protect and the weather of your snapshot period). The rule is timber moves on flatcars. Historically in the lumber business timber doesn't move much at all during late fall and winter, the inventory is run down to nearly nothing at the lumber yards, timber doesn't yard well. But if you were to move your snapshot forward the lumber industry does move in much higher volumes starting in late January through the last week of May, then it cycles down through the end of August, September is flat to down with a slight pick up about the 10th of October and if the market is good as well as the weather the market runs until the first week in December and then goes quiet. If the storms of November come early the market dies until late January again.

If the national economy has a recession as it did in the mid 50s all bets are off.

Greg Martin

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