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Freight car distribution
armprem
I would like to reopen the dialogue on freight car distribution.I am
aware that to some, it may have been discussed ad nauseam.I firmly believe that we tend see more freight cars within their own region than by size.What is your opinion?Armand Premo
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al_brown03
--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "armprem1" <armprem@...> wrote:
On this topic, my opinion doesn't count for much, since I don't have original data. With due respect, I turn the question back. In regard to the freight-car distribution on (for example) the Rutland, what are the numbers? I intend the question in a friendly spirit of inquiry. It's conceivable that the answer could be different from one railroad to another, or even from one location to another on a sufficiently large railroad. -- Al Brown, Melbourne, Fla.
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On Fri, August 8, 2008 7:44 pm, armprem1 wrote:
I would like to reopen the dialogue on freight car distribution.I amArmand, First, it is probably not really appropriate to make such a broad statement. We know that car distributions varied by type. Thus hopper cars were far more likely to be home road and regional, while gons were more likely to be regional and boxcars and flat cars were national in distribution for much of the steam era. Reefers and tank cars followed ownership distributions for the most part for originating loads, but were widely distributed for terminating loads, especially for reefers. For example, lettuce was still going to come in PFE reefers, even if you were on an FGE road but the vast majority of produce originating on that road would be in FGE/BRE/WFE owned cars. For roads like the Rutland, you have to ask what it means to see lots of NYC and PRR boxcars? This should not be taken to necessarily mean a regional bias, since these were two of the largest fleets in the nation. The question has to be were these cars present in greater numbers than indicated by their percentage in the national fleet because of the Rutland's proximity to these roads? Almost of the data presented here over the years by Tim Gilbert and others has indicated quite clearly that boxcars were present (with the exception of home road) in percentages that resemble the national percentages on just about every road in the country, thus putting the concept of home road and regional preference in boxcars firmly into the category of modeler's fantasy. Note that this DOES NOT apply to individual trains, as our ertswhile list owner will no doubt point out with his "SP Forwarder" example... They apply to fleets. Regards Bruce Bruce Smith Auburn, AL
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armprem
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While I must admit that I am more familiar with roads in New England ,but by observing freight yard photos of other areas of the country I have concluded that there is the strong likelihood that I will not see as many Pennsy cars (of all types) in Los Angles as I will in Boston or moreUP cars in Omaha than in Baltimore.Armand Premo----- Original Message -----
From: "al_brown03" <abrown@fit.edu> To: <STMFC@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Friday, August 08, 2008 9:12 PM Subject: [STMFC] Re: Freight car distribution --- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "armprem1" <armprem@...> wrote:On this topic, my opinion doesn't count for much, since I don't have -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Internal Virus Database is out of date. Checked by AVG. Version: 8.0.136 / Virus Database: 269.24.0/1462 - Release Date: 5/23/2008 7:20 AM
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Mike Brock <brockm@...>
Bruce Smith writes:
"Almost of the data presented here over the years by Tim Gilbert and others has indicated quite clearly that boxcars were present (with the exception of home road) in percentages that resemble the national percentages on just about every road in the country, thus putting the concept of home road and regional preference in boxcars firmly into the category of modeler's fantasy. Note that this DOES NOT apply to individual trains, as our ertswhile list owner will no doubt point out with his "SP Forwarder" example... They apply to fleets." Well, with regard to individual trains, I agree completely with Bruce. However, rather than risk disagreeing with the position I took on this subject two yrs ago, I'll reprint part of what I wrote on June 13, 2006: "At any rate, the data from the '49 Fraley [ for whatever reason ] shows that SP box cars seem to exceed their national avg on UP tracks in Wyoming while those of WP seem to be less than their avg. My Fraley shows that there were 15 trains [ out of 34 ] with one or less SP box cars. In fact, 9 had none at all. Two trains had a total of 42.3% of the SP box cars...27 + 31 cars. I might point out that "why" doesn't really matter. Two others had 9 each. Thus 4 trains had 76 cars or 55.8%. 29 trains had 5 or less SP box cars. Surely, this doesn't sound like a random process at work." Tim Gilbert wrote: But over time - a week or a month - that distribution should average out except forAnd I replied: "Ah ha! I think I can agree with that. My point all along has been that certain RRs probably have more of their box cars...and perhaps other cars...on the tracks of a RR with a closely integrated operation...UP/SP. Perhaps UP/C&NW. The cars of other RRs...with some exceptions...might well follow the national %." Mike Brock
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Steve Lucas <stevelucas3@...>
Hopper car distribution is hard to pinpoint. Some examples from
Ontario and Quebec. L&N, SOU, RDG, LV, CNJ/CRP, B&O, D&H, IC, PRR, and NYC hoppers were common visitors, either carrying anthracite or loco coal depending on the originating location of the load. CPR had a "heavy financial interest" in the Cambridge Collieries of Cambridge, OH for loco coal, which was largely shipped in PRR hoppers to Ontario on a carfloat across Lake Erie from Ashtabula, OH to Port Burwell, ON. Almost solid trains of IC hoppers carried loco coal to CN engine terminals in Southern Ontario, running over GTW rails to get to Canada. The anthracite roads' hoppers were often found in both Southern Ontario and Quebec. B&O hoppers carrried loco coal to CN terminals in its Belleville Divison via a carfloat from a point near Rochester, NY until 1950. More B&O hoppers appear in photos of CPR freight trains in Southern Quebec in the 1950's. Both CN and CPR had large fleets of hoppers, but not many of them appear in steam-era photos taken in Southern Ontario and Quebec compared to those of the eastern US roads. Yet, without knowing any better, I'd have been led to believe that I should see CN and CPR cars everywhere in Southern Ontario during the steam era. Tisn't so. Steve Lucas. --- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "Bruce Smith" <smithbf@...> wrote: am regionaware that to some, it may have been discussed ad nauseam.I firmly hopperthan by size.What is your opinion?Armand PremoArmand, cars were far more likely to be home road and regional, while gonswere more likely to be regional and boxcars and flat cars were nationalin distribution for much of the steam era. Reefers and tank carsfollowed ownership distributions for the most part for originating loads,but were widely distributed for terminating loads, especially for reefers.For example, lettuce was still going to come in PFE reefers, even ifyou were on an FGE road but the vast majority of produce originating on thatroad would be in FGE/BRE/WFE owned cars.lots of NYC and PRR boxcars? This should not be taken to necessarily mean anation. The question has to be were these cars present in greater numbersthan indicated by their percentage in the national fleet because of thehere over the years by Tim Gilbert and others has indicated quiteclearly that boxcars were present (with the exception of home road) inpercentages that resemble the national percentages on just about every road in thecountry, thus putting the concept of home road and regional preference inboxcars firmly into the category of modeler's fantasy.ertswhile list owner will no doubt point out with his "SP Forwarder" example...They apply to fleets.
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Armand Premo wrote:
While I must admit that I am more familiar with roads in New England, but by observing freight yard photos of other areas of the country I have concluded that there is the strong likelihood that I will not see as many Pennsy cars (of all types) in Los Angles as I will in Boston or more UP cars in Omaha than in Baltimore.We have indeed discussed this at considerable length before, Armand, and possibly you were not on the list for that period. (You can consult list archives very usefully.) But Tim Gilbert, Dave Nelson and others analyzed data exhaustively from many sources, and all pointed to the same conclusion: the national (yes, national, not regional) distribution of free-running cars like box cars is that of the proportions of the car fleets. In other words your conclusion is wrong, on the average. As Mike Brock correctly points out, this does not necessarily tell us anything about an individual TRAIN, nor about a specialized yard which might be serving a specific industry with assigned cars. But it does tell us about regional differences. In effect, it shows that the system of free-running cars nationally really DID have them running freely. Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Malcolm Laughlin <mlaughlinnyc@...>
"Ah ha! I think I can agree with that. My point all along has been that certain RRs probably have more of their box cars...and perhaps other cars...on the tracks of a RR with a closely integrated operation... UP/SP. Perhaps UP/C&NW. The cars of other RRs...with some exceptions.. .might well follow the national %."
=========== You would normally see a higher than the average number of home road cars of any general service car type for a few simple reason. When cars were not needed they were sent home. Most railroads did try to observe the Car Service Rules, with varying degrees of compliance. Many cars went thoruogh shop programs or were stored, usually on the owning road. Personal recollections, on the NYC I did see many more box NYC cars and gons than I would have seen on the PRR. Opposite was true on PRR. It is true that on most of the large class 1's you were going to see marks of all other class 1's. But the proportions would differ subtley as you moved away from the home road. You would see a lot of NYC cars on the SP, but not nearly the same proportion as on the Wabash. You'd see a few WP cars on the NYC, but a much higher proportion on the Rio Grande. I would be very wary of any interptretation of statistics that varies far from common sense. The problem is that the samples that we see as model railroaders are rarely large enough to draw firm conclusions. Ther fallacy in designing an arithmetic algorithm to estmate distribution of cars from available data because you want a set of numbers is that the result doesn't have to be meaningful in any specific context. None of us can model the average railroad. I'll offer as a suggestion to model railroaders a simple algorithm for calculating fleet proportions. Weight the percentage of ownership of each other railroad by its distance from you road. Give direct connections a weight of 1.0. Give the most distant other railroad a weight of 2 or 3 (this is arbitrary, play with it until you get a result you like). Then interpolate for other railroads based on distance. Don't use the distance for the nearest junction, use the middle of the railroad - to avoid bias from extensions like SP to New Orleans or NYC to Cairo. Use a ruler on a mpa of the US and use distances in inches. Precision doesn't matter. It's a waste of time to try for too much accuracy. The objective shouldn't so much as to have an average of the prototype as to have a flow of cars that gives a feeling of realism as the trains go by. Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383 New England Rail Shipper Directories 19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478 Malcolm Laughlin, Editor 617-489-4383 New England Rail Shipper Directories 19 Holden Road, Belmont, MA 02478
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armprem
A major problem we are facing with this issue is the lack of any uniform parameters.Do we include the Canadian roads to arrive at approximate percentages or are they being excluded?Are we just dealing with only box cars?Would this include all types?We may be looking at different things to come up with a reasonable result.The point I was trying to make is that connecting roads handle adjoining road cars twice,coming and going.Maybe this distorts the percentage.At any rate, I suspect this may be an exercise in futility unless and until ,we can agree on the parameters that we will use.Armand Premo
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Malcolm Laughlin" <mlaughlinnyc@yahoo.com> To: <stmfc@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Monday, August 11, 2008 9:13 PM Subject: [STMFC] Fwd: Re: Freight car distribution "Ah ha! I think I can agree with that. My point all along has been that certain RRs probably have more of their box cars...and perhaps other cars...on the tracks of a RR with a closely integrated operation... UP/SP. Perhaps UP/C&NW. The cars of other RRs...with some exceptions.. .might well follow the national %." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Internal Virus Database is out of date. Checked by AVG. Version: 8.0.136 / Virus Database: 269.24.0/1462 - Release Date: 5/23/2008 7:20 AM
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Malcolm Laughlin wrote:
I would be very wary of any interptretation of statistics that varies far from common sense.If you haven't read Tim Gilbert's analyses, please do so in the archives before commenting further. I found his statistical approach entirely convincing, and would say, with all due respect, that in my opinion the burden of proof is on you to show why he was wrong. Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Steve Lucas <stevelucas3@...>
Becuase of a continuous North American rail system, common track
gauge, coupler height, and air brake compatibility, any North American freight car could be found anywhere in North America from the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico to Husdon Bay. Or even Cuba and Alaska (?) at different times, all within the mandate of STMFC. You can't exclude any road in setting parameters for this very reason. In trying to determine a representative freight car mix for any North American location, we have a very daunting task. The best we can do is to approximate the freight car mix for that area. Failing straight checks of yard tracks from the location and date that we interested in, or complete train journals/wheel reports, we necessarily wind up engaging in what I describe as at best learned conjecture. I'd like to say that there is a method that works for every time and location, but the fact is that with two million cars in the North American rail system, just about any combination of railroads' cars are possible at a specific time and location. It's very, very, unlikely to have had NdeM box cars hauling export grain to Churchill, Manitoba in 1956, but it wasn't totally impossible either. A Linn Westcott photo printed in MR a few years back shows a new yellow TH&B box car in Florida about 1953. The best that we can do is to educate ourselves as to car distribution at our specific locations and times that we are interested in. There is no magic equation to help us out. All formulae that I have seen so far to give car distribution at a specific location and time, are at best approximations. We have a lot of leeway as modellers. Just don't run that ONR car too often on your LA switching layout. And I've yet to find justification for a silver-painted D&RGW Cookie Box on a single-track secondary line in Eastern Ontario. ;)) Steve Lucas. --- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "Armand Premo" <armprem@...> wrote: any uniform parameters.Do we include the Canadian roads to arrive atapproximate percentages or are they being excluded?Are we just dealing withonly box cars?Would this include all types?We may be looking at differentthings to come up with a reasonable result.The point I was trying to make isthat connecting roads handle adjoining road cars twice,coming andgoing.Maybe this distorts the percentage.At any rate, I suspect this may be anexercise in futility unless and until ,we can agree on the parameters thatwe will use.Armand Premo
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Steve Lucas wrote:
Becuase of a continuous North American rail system, common track gauge, coupler height, and air brake compatibility, any North American freight car could be found anywhere in North America from the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico to Husdon Bay. . .Yes, COULD be, but Steve, there were tax and customs laws preventing free circulation of Canadian and Mexican freight cars in the U.S. So track gauge is far from all of the story. Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Steve Lucas <stevelucas3@...>
I am not asserting that "track gauge" is the only issue here. In
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fact, there are some very complex issues at play, maybe some not yet addressed on this board. Tax laws?? The CPR did purchase PS-1 boxcars from Pullman-Standard for this very reason. Yet, those tax and customs laws did not prevent US roads from keeping Canadian cars for their own use, simply paying the demurrage on them. This was an issue that bedeviled the Canadian roads from the 1950's until the 1970's. CN discouraged its employees from placing newer CN cars at customer sidings for loading to US destinations for this reason. (Canadian roads' older cars that were equipped with K brakes were prohibited for loading to US destinations and is a separate issue from this discussion.) And when the grain was running, US cars were used by CN for loading in the early-to-mid-1940's with export grain, yet, per AAR Car Service rules, they should have been returned empty to the home road. Steve Lucas.
--- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
wrote: . the U.S. So track gauge is far from all of the story.
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Steve Lucas <stevelucas3@...>
On first read, Tim Gilbert's work seems to be extremely well thought
out, and gives very good statistical data on car distribution at specific locations in the US as of 31 December, 1952. Steve Lucas. --- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, Anthony Thompson <thompson@...> wrote: the archives before commenting further. I found his statisticalapproach entirely convincing, and would say, with all due respect, that inmy opinion the burden of proof is on you to show why he was wrong.
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Mike Brock <brockm@...>
Tony Thompson writes:
"Malcolm Laughlin wrote: I would be very wary of any interptretation of statistics thatIf you haven't read Tim Gilbert's analyses, please do so in the archives before commenting further." Well...to be completely fair to all, Malcolm notified me that he wanted to comment on this issue. My response was a suggestion that he read through the many messages regarding this issue during the period 2003-2006 or so. He informed me that he would do that before reaching his conclusions. The point here is that this issue is not a closed subject...anymore than whether life exists on Mars or not. OTOH, it behooves us, I think, to not ignore previously analyzed and presented information...hence, my suggestion to read through the previous messages. "I found his statistical approach entirely convincing, and would say, with all due respect, that in my opinion the burden of proof is on you to show why he was wrong." Tony's point is well taken. The problem, of course, is that we have so little data. I will add to that that I, myself, have more data that has not been analyzed. My fault. In the case of my analyzed Fraley data, it consists of 34 frt trains in about a month and a half in the spring of '49. Given that UP was running about 35 frt trains [ if I remember correctly ] per day, that's a very tiny bit of data. If the distribution of the approximate number of frt cars moving through Wyoming on a given day, let's say 2800, was uniform, perhaps 80 in a single train is enough to generate a prediction model. Unfortunately, however, the data indicates quite a different sampling. As I pointed out back in June 2006 and repeated on 8-9-2008, the presence or lack thereof of SP box cars was VERY inconsistent. Thus, of the 34 frt trains, 15 trains contained one or less SP box cars and 9 had none at all. This in a population that contained 136 SP box cars. The model of SP box cars being 2.79% of the nation's box cars predicts 46 SP box cars. Not good, an error of 200%. Another significant interchange with UP was C&NW. The model predicted 41 C&NW box cars but the data shows 55...an error of 34%. CB&Q was predicted to be 38. The actual number was 75...an error of 100%. So, what does this mean? Well, consider that the UP Wyoming trunk line interchange with other RR's at Ogden [ SP and D&RGW/WP ], CB&Q [ C&S ] at Cheyenne and Grand Island, NE, and more RR's than I can count at Omaha. Note that the SP line from Sacramento essentially had no interchange between there and Ogden. We're talking about a rather lengthy system with very limited interchange with other RR's. If the UP Wyoming trunk line had numerous interchanges throughout its distance, perhaps like just about any midwestern RR, maybe the population of frt cars WOULD follow the model's predictions. Who knows. Incidentally, it has been argued that the model predicts over a long period of time...say a yr...rather than just 34 trains in a month and a half. Perhaps, but that doesn't work for me. Every day is May 14, 1953. Do groundhogs live in Wyoming? At least I don't use a clock radio. And, unlike the weather guy, I like to watch big steam power working up the Hill every day...although I will admit to a certain amount of annoyance when the occasional turbine or diesel rolls by. Mike Brock
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al_brown03
To repeat an old story: my favorite weird example is described in
message #60611. I have no idea how it got there (apart from, presumably, by rail). Al Brown, Melbourne, Fla. --- In STMFC@yahoogroups.com, "Steve Lucas" <stevelucas3@...> wrote: yet addressed on this board.simply paying the demurrage on them. This was an issue that bedeviled theits employees from placing newer CN cars at customer sidings forloading to US destinations for this reason. (Canadian roads' older carsthat were equipped with K brakes were prohibited for loading to USin thewww.signaturepress.comU.S. So track gauge is far from all of the story. (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Steve Lucas wrote:
Tax laws?? The CPR did purchase PS-1 boxcars from Pullman-Standard for this very reason. Yet, those tax and customs laws did not prevent US roads from keeping Canadian cars for their own use, simply paying the demurrage on them.This is not an area of my own expertise, but we have been told by several people on this list in the past, that Canadian cars could only move in the U.S. to destinations to unload, then return empty, or else the Canadian owner would have to pay U.S. taxes on the cars if they remained in use in the U.S. (if I'm remembering the story correctly). So yes, Canadian cars brought newsprint to Los Angeles, for example, but went straight back. I don't know about Canadian rules regarding U.S. cars in Canada. If this story is wrong, Steve, please enlighten us with the right story (or correct my wrong memory of what transpired previously). Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Steve Lucas wrote:
I'd like to say that there is a method that works for every time and location, but the fact is that with two million cars in the North American rail system, just about any combination of railroads' cars are possible at a specific time and location.I'm glad Tim Gilbert isn't with us any longer, to see his work ignored. The issue is not, and has not been, what is POSSIBLE. The issue is, what is reasonably typical, on the average. Tim's work addressed that in considerable detail, and I for one found it persuasive. Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Anthony Thompson <thompson@...>
Mike Brock wrote:
The problem, of course, is that we have so little data.Mike is, again, treating an entirely different problem--no less important, but different. Tim and those who worked with him, like Dave Nelson, NEVER tried to understand individual trains. Sure, as modelers we need to understand those trains if we can, and I have always enthusiastically agreed with Mike that we desperately need more data on train consists in each of our eras and locations of interest. Tim was more interested in the global problem, that is, the average over all trains over some suitable time interval, if you will. Because his results were consistent and seemed to me robust, I think anyone wishing to state some other OPINION about the subject, is only expressing their own, possibly wandering, thoughts, unless they can counter what Tim did. That's what I meant by saying Malcolm has the burden to prove Tim wrong before suggesting contrary opinions--or provide equally extensive and consistent results as what Tim accomplished. Tony Thompson Editor, Signature Press, Berkeley, CA 2906 Forest Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 www.signaturepress.com (510) 540-6538; fax, (510) 540-1937; e-mail, thompson@signaturepress.com Publishers of books on railroad history
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Dave Nelson
Tim and those who worked with him, like Dave Nelson, NEVER tried tounderstand individual trains. That is correct. Here's a simple explanation of the issue: --------- Safeway sells all sorts of things, one of which is Yoplait Yogurt. Railroads move all sorts of freight cars, one of which is a SP 40', etc, etc, etc boxcar. On average, not every shopping cart has any Yoplait Yogurts. On average, not every train has any SP boxcars. When Yoplait yogurt is on sale, one of Dave Nelson's shopping carts once had 20+ Yoplait yogurts in it. When UP is pulling empties across Sherman Hill one of UP's train once had 20+ SP boxcars in it. --------- So which do you want to talk about -- one of my one-of shopping carts when Yoplait is on sale or the overall average of what Safeway sees day in and day out? IMO only the overall average has any informative value as you can create from that any combination of items for the individual events as you see fit. OTOH, following the one-of event **as-if** it had informative value does nothing but create identical events, repeated ad-nauseum. All the one-of events are good for is to example the extremes that might, on occasion, occur: 20+ yogurts in one cart. Who-dda thought? It doesn't tell you anything about the variety that will be found in many shopping carts/trains, and is particularly useless when you want to understand what happens in one day, multiple days, weeks, months, or longer. Dave Nelson P.S. I miss Tim. He'd have willingly stepped into this discussion a long time ago. I don't much like to write about this anymore... it's a bit like explaining that the world is indeed round. It was a startling discovery and worthy of debate when first revealed but it has been explained for 10 years now. Search the archives. It's all still there.
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