Ratios
Eric Lombard, Ray Breyer and Larry Ostesh have done a lot of research along these lines with regards to boxcars which can be found in the files section of this list. Such asSeek and ye shall find...Steve Hile
From: main@RealSTMFC.groups.io [mailto:main@RealSTMFC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Armand Premo
Sent: Monday, September 16, 2019 12:17 PM
To: main@realstmfc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [RealSTMFC] RatiosTo carry ratios a bit further would be the ratio of wood to steel freight cars per era one is modeling.Armand Premo![]()
From: main@RealSTMFC.groups.io [mailto:main@RealSTMFC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Armand Premo
Sent: Monday, September 16, 2019 12:17 PM
To: main@realstmfc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [RealSTMFC] Ratios

"Understanding your road's traffic is very important" can't be emphasized enough. Bruce mentioned Reading traffic in his PRR area of interest (Columbia, PA, about 20 miles south of Harrisburg on the east side of the Susquehanna river.)
My area of interest is the mainline starting about 30 miles RR west of Columbia. Purchase of several WWII vintage PRR documents on car routing provides some major insights. Yes, for loads, many of us have decided that the distribution of loaded cars can match Bruce's proposed numbers, especially for a mainline functioning as a major US bridge line (as the PRR was between Pittsburgh and east coast destinations, especially during WWII.)
One of the PRR documents I found was specifically on how to route foreign road empties towards their home roads. Keep in mind on the PRR during WWII, there was a tremendous imbalance of loads versus empties. Less than 1% empties EB, 75% empties WB. Ignoring the PRR's large EB coal traffic, 60% of the WB non-hopper cars were empty.
While the 40% of those cars that were loaded might still reflect the national averages, for the empties, there could be significant deviations. Case in point was the NYC - operator of the second largest fleet of box cars. If the yardmaster's followed the PRR guidance, there would be no WB empty NYC cars west of Harrisburg on the PRR mainline. They were sent in a different direction (in fact in central PA, the PRR seems to have enjoyed returning NYC empties to a location on the NYC that was likely very inconvenient for the NYC to deal with ;-) The NYC cars would still be used for loads, but for WB non-hopper trains, the NYC cars should be under-represented.
The other twist was limitations on car clearances, which in the east were often inadequate for many western RR XM's. For the PRR, that meant that the taller XM's would be on trains running between Harrisburg and Chicago, since there were clearance limits along the line towards St. Louis. (The PRR booklet lists every single class of XM for every railroad, with notes on where they could, and could not, be routed.)
While not impacting the average distribution of cars flowing across the railroad, it could have significant impact on the consists of individual merchandise trains, just because of their ultimate destination, For example, all the tall XM's (loads and MTY's) on WB trains were routed towards Chicago (for tall cars destined for the SW US, those cars would use a division in Indiana to get back to the line to St. Louis). XM's on the trains headed directly toward St. Louis would be limited to the shorter XM's. This offers some unique challenges a superintendent may want to impose on their yardmaster when classifying and blocking XM's....
Dave Evans
Bruce models the PRR, so 75% home road hoppers on any coal hauling road makes sense. But I model the NH that has a modest fleet of hoppers of less than 1,000, with little originating traffic that would send them offline. So home road hoppers make up a very small part of my fleet.
Understanding your road’s traffic is very important. For example, as much as 60% of the coal entering CT in my era was by water. That appears to have been Pocahontas and other bituminous coming through Baltimore, and I think was the primary source of coal loaded in NH hoppers to be distributed to industry, but particularly the railroad’s facilities. On the other hand, anthracite came primarily via Maybrook, unless you were in the vicinity of NYC, in which case it came mostly by float via Jersey City and Greenville. So I go with the anthracite hoppers as a mix of 75% home road of their loading point.
So the mix of hoppers is very dependent on whether you’re modeling a coal road or not, I think.
Gondolas and flats are the same, and since the NH was heavily involved in manufacturing, gondolas were also predominantly foreign. Like the hoppers, I think gondolas and flats are far more dependent on the home road of the loading point.
I also think we often have too little variety (and too few) “rare” cars. I have two pictures, from different days, with ATSF Ga-8 gons, and these weren’t photographed because of their rarity, they just happened to be on those trains. Likewise the photos of the Litchfield & Madison gondola in New Britain. Numerous pictures of C&I hoppers, etc.
I think at least SOME of Tim Gilbert's data was not from train lists, but from "cars on hand"
data - some railroads published this kind of data e.g. Great Northern annual reports. A railroad
might have a good supply of home road cars "on hand" that were just waiting for assignments, or
waiting for repairs. The PRR was famous for having tens of thousands of bad ordered cars on line
just being held for repairs, or retirement. I've seen railroad yard photos that shows scads of
home road cars of all kinds coupled together in long lines...
A great type of data is to know percentages of (1a) originated loads that terminate online (1b)
that terminate offline and (2a) received loads that terminate online or (2b) are interchanged to
other roads. Knowing AAR rules etc, one can make intelligent guesses about model consists that
represent these traffic flows.
Tim
On 9/15/2019 5:53 PM, Jason Kliewer wrote:
I've transcribed 10,000 car movements from 1960's train list for the Chicago Great Western and the home road cars only made up 10% of the total.
Along with that, in the top 10 were Canadian Pacific and Canadian National.
Jason Kliewer
Tim O'Connor
Sterling, Massachusetts
I've transcribed 10,000 car movements from 1960's train list for the Chicago Great Western and the home road cars only made up 10% of the total.
Along with that, in the top 10 were Canadian Pacific and Canadian National.
I've transcribed 10,000 car movements from 1960's train list for the Chicago Great Western and the home road cars only made up 10% of the total.
Along with that, in the top 10 were Canadian Pacific and Canadian National.
Jason Kliewer
Bruce models the PRR, so 75% home road hoppers on any coal hauling road makes sense. But I model the NH that has a modest fleet of hoppers of less than 1,000, with little originating traffic that would send them offline. So home road hoppers make up a very small part of my fleet.
Understanding your road’s traffic is very important. For example, as much as 60% of the coal entering CT in my era was by water. That appears to have been Pocahontas and other bituminous coming through Baltimore, and I think was the primary source of coal loaded in NH hoppers to be distributed to industry, but particularly the railroad’s facilities. On the other hand, anthracite came primarily via Maybrook, unless you were in the vicinity of NYC, in which case it came mostly by float via Jersey City and Greenville. So I go with the anthracite hoppers as a mix of 75% home road of their loading point.
So the mix of hoppers is very dependent on whether you’re modeling a coal road or not, I think.
Gondolas and flats are the same, and since the NH was heavily involved in manufacturing, gondolas were also predominantly foreign. Like the hoppers, I think gondolas and flats are far more dependent on the home road of the loading point.
I also think we often have too little variety (and too few) “rare” cars. I have two pictures, from different days, with ATSF Ga-8 gons, and these weren’t photographed because of their rarity, they just happened to be on those trains. Likewise the photos of the Litchfield & Madison gondola in New Britain. Numerous pictures of C&I hoppers, etc.
I’m not saying those happen every day, but based on those and many, many other photos that have “rare” cars (often in the background) show that there’s a wider variety than many allow. I think we often make the mistake of not having enough different “rare” cars to mix in, making the couple of rare cars that are owned very common on our layouts.
Randy
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—
Randy Hammill
Modeling the New Haven Railroad 1946-1954
http://newbritainstation.com
Armand,
Still don’t believe (or remember) what you have been repeatedly told here over the past, what 20 years or so?
It’s really simple… estimates are as follows (and these estimates are based on hard numbers):
Home Road house cars - 25%Home Road gondolas - 50%Home Road hoppers - 75%
Foreign road house cars - distributed essentially in the national fleet percentagesForeign road flat cars - national fleet percentagesReefers - if originating traffic, nearly (but not completely) 100% “home” road (ie, the associated company, SFRD for ATSF, PFE for SP and UP, etc)if receiving traffic, closer to national fleet numbersif modeling WWII, national fleet numbers for everythingTank cars - very era dependent, but typically regional, unless modeling WWII tank car trainsForeign road gondolas - regional railroadsForeign road hoppers - nearest neighbors, but often very specific for location, connection, and cargo. e.g C&O and N&W cars interchanged onto the PRR on Lines West for delivery to the great lakes, but almost never seen on Lines East PRR (except during WWII).
Exceptions - lines with specific traffic (most often branch lines), where the cars needed might be in pool service such as automobile manufacturing.
Note bene: These are FLEET percentage, so before Mike Brock has to post yet another disclaimer about trains full of SP cars on the UP, these numbers DO NOT apply to every train, but rather to the aggregate total of cars. So, for example, trains on my (proposed) layout on the PRR stopping to interchange cars in Columbia PA with the READING will have a higher than national average percentage of READING cars to reflect that local traffic, but the rest of the trains will have almost none, since READING traffic of that nature was unlikely to be seen going past an interchange and my overall READING percentage will be just about the national fleet number!
Regards
Bruce
Bruce F. Smith
Auburn, AL
"Some days you are the bug, some days you are the windshield."
On Sep 13, 2019, at 10:43 AM, Armand Premo <arm.p.prem@...> wrote:
I would like to open the topic of ratios and how they might be used to develop a realistic roster for the specific era,road and locations Armand Premo
Seeing Tony Wagner's post, yes it may well require a goodly amount of research on your part. How you look upon doing that will affect how deeply you want to dig.
Set some significant time aside, grab your favorite beverage and search this list for Nelson-Gilbert or Gilbert-Nelson, and the same letters without the dash or hyphen "-". Read all of those. They provide a good start without leaving your chair.
Brian Carlson did an excellent presentation years (a decade or two ago by now) at CCB. It inspired me to follow his example and later do a presentation at Naperville Sunshine, and the following CCB titled Closer to the Rail Head.
In a few words, taking the above research by Dave Nelson and Tim Gilbert, and using the reasoning Bruce put forth, that gets you a national balance. Then determine the geographic parameters, of the overall rail division you want to model. Search that area for major industries in that area or just beyond. And interchanges. That will get regional flavor.
And the time frame you model affects things. As has been stated here repeatedly, the closer you can get a year, season, month, as a setpoint, the more valid your data search as applied will be.
I model the Twin Cities - Twin Ports, late September of 1953 and what did I find? At first I thought it would be heavy northbound grain trains of 40 foot boxcars to the ports, and in some manner - it was that.
However, and here is where the local major industries had effect, there was heavier coal traffic coming south for domestic and commercial heating than the grain going north. Something that would taper off by the late 50s as homes switched to natural gas. (Hence the importance of timeframe.) Still that coal traffic south, via hopper, gon, and boxcars was the major tonnage in either direction and helped determine my car purchases.
A steel mill in the Duluth area that sent pig iron ingots south via gons, in addition to boxcar loads of wire and nails southbound in significant amounts entered in.
There was a pipeline running east to west through both the Twin Cities and Twin Ports and they balanced transfers between the pipelines via rail in tank cars, in significant numbers. I need to clarify, both pipelines had transfer points directly on or adjacent to my railroad. Also as I have posted here prior, some tank cars loaded from Montana and Wyoming to Minnesota, enough that it enters in as a traffic factor to me.
A surprise was meat, there were the St. Paul stockyards and several meat distribution offices in Duluth. Swift, Armour, and others. That in addition to a slaughter house in West Duluth which meant stock cars northbound. From the St. Paul stockyards went carloads of meat for export via ship. How or why did they do that? I don't need to know, all I needed was the carload numbers of meat reefers.
The connection from Canada via the DW&P into Duluth was significant, as I have posted to this list before, 44 cars per day on average on my railroad, CN cars, mostly of newsprint, going south loaded, and returning empty. I bought a whole bunch of CN TLT cars for representation there.
All of this affected my balance of the purchase of gons, hoppers, reefers, tank cars, in addition to boxcars.
And all found through research.
How deeply do you want to research, that depends and is up to you. I will add that there were several branch lines off the above Twin Ports -Twin Cities. The Grantsburg branch and the Stillwater branch were two of those. The Stillwater branch connected with the Omaha and Milwaukee at Stillwater, MN. There was pulpwood that came off the Grantsburg branch, then went south to the Stillwater branch, and was transported by prior named connections to papermills in central Wisconsin. Again, something that affects modeled traffic.
Of steel vs wood sided, I cannot give you a clear answer. Other have posted on wood vs steel car by year. You'll just have to search this list for those posts and that data.
However Mike Brock himself posted this in the files https://realstmfc.groups.io/g/main/files/DS-SS-Steel%20Split%201938%20to%201950%20Summary.xls
Perhaps if you named your region and date frame modeled, others could help. Jim Dick - Roseville, MN
The work that I did with Tim Gilbert 20 odd years ago was very specific to WWII to around 1956, mainline trunk routes, initially for boxcars and then flatcars too. We had far too little data for before WWII or after the mid 50’s to even murmur speculative numbers.
That said, it was always my working assumption that WWII really scattered the boxcar fleet. It seems reasonable that the economic collapse of the great depression may have had the opposite effect. Before that… who knows?
YMMV.
For your specific question I think the answer may be found in the ICC Blue books of whatever era you are interested in. If Tim were still with us he’d know for sure… and probably provide you with the answer.
Dave Nelson
From: main@RealSTMFC.groups.io [mailto:main@RealSTMFC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Armand Premo
Sent: Friday, September 13, 2019 12:40 PM
To: main@realstmfc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [RealSTMFC] Ratios
Ratios varied from decade to decade, I have felt that the wood to steel ratio was important,at least to me.I had too many steel cars because that was all that was available.at that time.Armand Premo

Regards
Bruce
Bruce F. Smith
Auburn, AL
On Sep 13, 2019, at 10:43 AM, Armand Premo <arm.p.prem@...> wrote:
I would like to open the topic of ratios and how they might be used to develop a realistic roster for the specific era,road and locations Armand Premo